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Survival pessimism and the demand for annuities

Author

Listed:
  • Cormac O'Dea

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Yale University)

  • David Sturrock

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies)

Abstract

The “annuity puzzle” refers to the fact that annuities are rarely purchased despite the longevity insurance they provide. Most explanations for this puzzle assume that indi-viduals have accurate expectations about their future survival. We provide evidence that individuals misperceive their mortality risk, and study the demand for annuities in a setting where annuities are priced by insurers on the basis of objectively-measured survival probabilities but in which individuals make purchasing decisions based on their own subjective survival probabilities. Subjective expectations have the capacity to explain signi?cant rates of non-annuitization, yielding a quantitatively important explanation for the annuity puzzle. This report was updated on 6/8/2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Cormac O'Dea & David Sturrock, 2019. "Survival pessimism and the demand for annuities," IFS Working Papers W19/02, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:19/02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Vincent Vandenberghe, 2021. "Partial De-Annuitization of Public Pensions v.s. Retirement Age Differentiation. Which is Best to Account for Longevity Differences?," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2021029, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    2. repec:cup:judgdm:v:16:y:2021:i:4:p:1072-1096 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Linden, Mikael & Väänänen, Niko, 2023. "Mean survival times and retirement ages," MPRA Paper 119344, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. David A. Comerford, 2021. "Apparent age and gender differences in survival optimism: To what extent are they a bias in the translation of beliefs onto a percentage scale?," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 16(4), pages 1072-1096, July.
    5. Torben M. Andersen & Cecilie Marie Løchte Jørgensen, 2024. "The Distributional Implications of Pension Benefit Indexation," CESifo Working Paper Series 10943, CESifo.
    6. Piotrowska, Maria, 2019. "The importance of personality characteristics and behavioral constraints for retirement saving," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 194-220.
    7. Jenny Robinson & David A. Comerford, 2020. "The Effect on Annuities Preference of Prompts to Consider Life Expectancy: Evidence from a UK Quota Sample," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 87(347), pages 747-762, July.
    8. Adriaan Kalwij & Vesile Kutlu Koc, 2021. "Is the accuracy of individuals' survival beliefs associated with their knowledge of population life expectancy?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(14), pages 453-468.
    9. Hurwitz, Abigail & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Sade, Orly, 2022. "Testing methods to enhance longevity awareness," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 466-475.
    10. Nurin Haniah Asmuni & Ken Seng Tan & Sachi Purcal, 2022. "The Impact of Health Impairment on Optimal Annuitization for Retirees," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-21, April.
    11. de Bresser, Jochem, 2021. "Evaluating the Accuracy of Counterfactuals The Role of Heterogeneous Expectations in Life Cycle Models," Discussion Paper 2021-034, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    12. Chen, An & Hieber, Peter & Rach, Manuel, 2021. "Optimal retirement products under subjective mortality beliefs," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PA), pages 55-69.
    13. Atta Mills, Ebenezer Fiifi Emire & Anyomi, Siegfried Kafui, 2023. "Optimal lifetime income annuity without bequest: Single and annual premiums," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    14. de Bresser, Jochem, 2021. "Evaluating the Accuracy of Counterfactuals The Role of Heterogeneous Expectations in Life Cycle Models," Other publications TiSEM a7e2b4d8-fed0-4e86-926f-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Annuity Puzzle; Subjective Expectations; Survival Probabilities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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