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Is there international risk-sharing between developed economies? New evidence from indirect inference

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Abstract

It has been an `empirical consensus' that data from developed economies generally do not support the hypothesis of international risk-sharing, either in the form of full risk-pooling via state-contingent assets or in the form of uncovered interest parity enforced by trading non-contingent assets. We reassess these hypotheses in the context of a full DSGE model, as opposed to testing them as single regressions in previous work. We prove that the two model versions behave identically, suggesting that consumers would receive the same scope of protection against risks whether bonds are state-contingent. We further find that the model, when tested appropriately as a whole embracing risk-pooling/UIP, fits the data well and universally through the lens of indirect inference; hence, we provide new evidence of the hypotheses' empirical validity spuriously rejected by single regressions.

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  • Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong & Zhu, Zheyi, 2023. "Is there international risk-sharing between developed economies? New evidence from indirect inference," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/3, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2023/3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. V. V Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(3), pages 533-563.
    2. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2011. "How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a new Keynesian DSGE model using indirect inference," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2078-2104.
    3. Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens & Yongdeng Xu, 2019. "Testing Part of a DSGE Model by Indirect Inference," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(1), pages 178-194, February.
    4. Vo Le & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens & Yongdeng Xu, 2016. "Testing Macro Models by Indirect Inference: A Survey for Users," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-38, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumer risk-pooling; UIP; two-country DSGE model; indirect inference test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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