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CBO’s Projection of Labor Force Participation Rates: Working Paper 2018-04

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  • Congressional Budget Office

Abstract

As part of its responsibility for producing baseline projections of the economy and the federal budget, the Congressional Budget Office regularly produces estimates and projections of labor force participation rates. Those projections serve as a key input to CBO’s estimate of potential output and the agency’s macroeconomic forecasts and budget projections. This paper describes the methodology used to produce CBO’s projections of labor force participation rates.The paper further examines the factors behind the recent trend decline in the overall and prime-

Suggested Citation

  • Congressional Budget Office, 2018. "CBO’s Projection of Labor Force Participation Rates: Working Paper 2018-04," Working Papers 53616, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:53616
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    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/workingpaper/53616-wp-laborforceparticipation.pdf
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    2. Dale Jorgenson & Mun Ho & Jon Samuels, 2019. "Educational Intensity and the Sources of, and Prospects for, U.S. Economic Growth," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 36, pages 161-186, Spring.
    3. Jorgenson, Dale & Ho, Mun & Samuels, Jon, 2019. "Recent U.S. economic performance and prospects for future growth," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 459-476.
    4. Andreas Hornstein & Marianna Kudlyak, 2019. "Aggregate Labor Force Participation and Unemployment and Demographic Trends," Working Paper 19-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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