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A Transitions-Based Model of Default for Irish Mortgages

Author

Listed:
  • Kelly, Robert

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • O'Malley, Terence

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

Abstract

Using a uniquely constructed loan-level dataset of the residential mortgage book of Irish financial institutions, this paper provides a framework for estimating default probabilities of individual mortgages. In contrast to the popular stock delinquency approach, this model provides estimates of default and cure flows: a requirement of the stress test approach adopted by the European Central Bank's comprehensive assessment. In addition, both default and cure transitions are modelled as functions of micro- and macro-covariates including loan characteristics and current macroeconomic conditions such as house prices and unemployment. When comparing the competing equity and affordability effects, labour market deterioration played a stronger role than house equity in the rise of Irish default rates. For cures, a scarring effect of default is identified and estimated with the probability of a loan returning to performing reducing by 25 per cent each quarter a loan remains delinquent.

Suggested Citation

  • Kelly, Robert & O'Malley, Terence, 2014. "A Transitions-Based Model of Default for Irish Mortgages," Research Technical Papers 17/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:17/rt/14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kelly, Robert & McCann, Fergal, 2015. "Households in long-term mortgage arrears:lessons from economic research," Economic Letters 11/EL/15, Central Bank of Ireland.
    2. Tsiropoulos, Vasilis, 2018. "A Vulnerability Analysis for Mortgaged Irish Households," Financial Stability Notes 02-18, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Gaffney, Edward & Kelly, Robert & McCann, Fergal & Lyons, Paul, 2014. "Loan loss forecasting: a methodological overview," Economic Letters 13/EL/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Kutu Adebayo Augustine & Ngalawa Harold, 2017. "Monetary Policy and Industrial Output in the BRICS Countries: A Markov-Switching Model," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 17(2), pages 35-55, December.
    5. Jed Armstrong & Hayden Skilling & Fang Yao, 2018. "Loan-to-Value Ratio Restrictions and House Prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2018/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    6. Tsiropoulos, Vasilis, 2018. "A Vulnerability Analysis for Mortgaged Irish Households," Financial Stability Notes 2/FS/18, Central Bank of Ireland.
    7. Andrew Linn & Ronan C. Lyons, 2020. "Three Triggers? Negative Equity, Income Shocks and Institutions as Determinants of Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 549-575, November.
    8. Armstrong, Jed & Skilling, Hayden & Yao, Fang, 2019. "Loan-to-value ratio restrictions and house prices: Micro evidence from New Zealand," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 88-98.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgage Default Modelling; Irish Banks; ECB Comprehensive Assessment.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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