IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cam/camdae/1527.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is the depressive effect of renewables on power prices contagious? A cross border econometric analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Sébastien Phan
  • Fabien Roques

Abstract

European power markets have become more integrated and the implementation of market coupling has reinforced the efficiency of cross-border trading. This paper investigates empirically the impact of renewables growth in Germany on German and French power price volatility. We find that renewables depress power prices on average and increase volatility not only domestically but also across borders. We also leverage market resiliency data to investigate the impact of increases in interconnection capacity. We find that power price volatility would decrease in France despite some contagion effects of volatility from German renewables production. Our findings have important policy implications as they demonstrate the need to coordinate cross-border support policies for renewables in order to mitigate the impact of volatility on power prices in coupled power markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Sébastien Phan & Fabien Roques, 2015. "Is the depressive effect of renewables on power prices contagious? A cross border econometric analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1527, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1527
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research-files/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe1527.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Knittel, Christopher R. & Roberts, Michael R., 2005. "An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 791-817, September.
    2. Würzburg, Klaas & Labandeira, Xavier & Linares, Pedro, 2013. "Renewable generation and electricity prices: Taking stock and new evidence for Germany and Austria," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(S1), pages 159-171.
    3. Ketterer, Janina C., 2014. "The impact of wind power generation on the electricity price in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 270-280.
    4. Schaber, Katrin & Steinke, Florian & Hamacher, Thomas, 2012. "Transmission grid extensions for the integration of variable renewable energies in Europe: Who benefits where?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 123-135.
    5. Roques, Fabien & Hiroux, Céline & Saguan, Marcelo, 2010. "Optimal wind power deployment in Europe--A portfolio approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3245-3256, July.
    6. Gelabert, Liliana & Labandeira, Xavier & Linares, Pedro, 2011. "An ex-post analysis of the effect of renewables and cogeneration on Spanish electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(S1), pages 59-65.
    7. Bode, Sven & Groscurth, Helmuth-Michael, 2006. "The Effect of the German Renewable Energy Act (EEG) on "the Electricity Price"," HWWA Discussion Papers 358, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    8. McInerney, Celine & Bunn, Derek, 2013. "Valuation anomalies for interconnector transmission rights," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 565-578.
    9. Gil, Hugo A. & Gomez-Quiles, Catalina & Riquelme, Jesus, 2012. "Large-scale wind power integration and wholesale electricity trading benefits: Estimation via an ex post approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 849-859.
    10. Jan Horst Keppler, Sebastien Phan, and Yannick Le Pen, 2016. "The Impacts of Variable Renewable Production and Market Coupling on the Convergence of French and German Electricity Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    11. Clò, Stefano & Cataldi, Alessandra & Zoppoli, Pietro, 2015. "The merit-order effect in the Italian power market: The impact of solar and wind generation on national wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 79-88.
    12. Sensfuß, Frank & Ragwitz, Mario & Genoese, Massimo, 2008. "The merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 3076-3084, August.
    13. O'Mahoney, Amy & Denny, Eleanor, 2011. "The Merit Order Effect of Wind Generation on the Irish Electricity Market," MPRA Paper 56043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14119 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Sáenz de Miera, Gonzalo & del Ri­o González, Pablo & Vizcaino, Ignacio, 2008. "Analysing the impact of renewable electricity support schemes on power prices: The case of wind electricity in Spain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3345-3359, September.
    16. Traber, Thure & Kemfert, Claudia, 2011. "Gone with the wind? -- Electricity market prices and incentives to invest in thermal power plants under increasing wind energy supply," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 249-256, March.
    17. Jan Horst Keppler & Sébastien Phan & Yannick Le Pen & Charlotte Boureau, 2017. "The Impact of Intermittent Renewable Production and Market Coupling on the Convergence of French and German Electricity Prices," Working Papers hal-01599700, HAL.
    18. Richard Green & Nicholas Vasilakos, 2011. "The Long-term Impact of Wind Power on Electricity Prices and Generating Capacity," Discussion Papers 11-09, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    19. Pedro Linares & Francisco Javier Santos & Mariano Ventosa, 2008. "Coordination of carbon reduction and renewable energy support policies," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 377-394, July.
    20. Jensen, S. G. & Skytte, K., 2002. "Interactions between the power and green certificate markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 425-435, April.
    21. Denny, E. & Tuohy, A. & Meibom, P. & Keane, A. & Flynn, D. & Mullane, A. & O'Malley, M., 2010. "The impact of increased interconnection on electricity systems with large penetrations of wind generation: A case study of Ireland and Great Britain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6946-6954, November.
    22. Woo, C.K. & Horowitz, I. & Moore, J. & Pacheco, A., 2011. "The impact of wind generation on the electricity spot-market price level and variance: The Texas experience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 3939-3944, July.
    23. Munksgaard, Jesper & Morthorst, Poul Erik, 2008. "Wind power in the Danish liberalised power market--Policy measures, price impact and investor incentives," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3940-3947, October.
    24. Worthington, Andrew & Kay-Spratley, Adam & Higgs, Helen, 2005. "Transmission of prices and price volatility in Australian electricity spot markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 337-350, March.
    25. Spiecker, Stephan & Vogel, Philip & Weber, Christoph, 2013. "Evaluating interconnector investments in the north European electricity system considering fluctuating wind power penetration," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 114-127.
    26. Jónsson, Tryggvi & Pinson, Pierre & Madsen, Henrik, 2010. "On the market impact of wind energy forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 313-320, March.
    27. Lynch, Muireann Á. & Tol, Richard S.J. & O'Malley, Mark J., 2012. "Optimal interconnection and renewable targets for north-west Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 605-617.
    28. Creti, Anna & Fumagalli, Eileen & Fumagalli, Elena, 2010. "Integration of electricity markets in Europe: Relevant issues for Italy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6966-6976, November.
    29. Thure Traber & Claudia Kemfert, 2009. "Impacts of the German Support for Renewable Energy on Electricity Prices, Emissions, and Firms," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 155-178.
    30. Bunn, Derek W. & Gianfreda, Angelica, 2010. "Integration and shock transmissions across European electricity forward markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 278-291, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho & Silva, Patrícia Pereira da & Bunn, Derek, 2016. "Weather and market specificities in the regional transmission of renewable energy price effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 188-200.
    2. Danielle Devogelaer & Benoît Laine, 2016. "Working Paper 09-16 - Drivers of wholesale electricity prices in a small, open economy - Some evidence from the nuclear restart in Belgium [Working Paper 09-16 - Marché de l’électricité : facteurs ," Working Papers 1609, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
    3. Klaus Gugler & Adhurim Haxhimusa, 2016. "Cross-Border Technology Differences and Trade Barriers: Evidence from German and French Electricity Markets," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp237, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    4. Abrell, Jan & Kosch, Mirjam, 2022. "Cross-country spillovers of renewable energy promotion—The case of Germany," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Haxhimusa, Adhurim, 2018. "The Effects of German Wind and Solar Electricity on French Spot Price Volatility: An Empirical Investigation," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 258, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    6. Fianu, Emmanuel Senyo & Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix & Grossi, Luigi, 2022. "Modeling risk contagion in the Italian zonal electricity market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(2), pages 656-679.
    7. George P. Papaioannou & Christos Dikaiakos & Christos Kaskouras & George Evangelidis & Fotios Georgakis, 2020. "Granger Causality Network Methods for Analyzing Cross-Border Electricity Trading between Greece, Italy, and Bulgaria," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-26, February.
    8. Rinne, Sonja, 2018. "Radioinactive: Are nuclear power plant outages in France contagious to the German electricity price?," CIW Discussion Papers 3/2018, University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics (CIW).
    9. Jha, Amit Prakash & Mahajan, Aarushi & Singh, Sanjay Kumar & Kumar, Piyush, 2022. "Renewable energy proliferation for sustainable development: Role of cross-border electricity trade," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P1), pages 1189-1199.
    10. Gugler, Klaus & Haxhimusa, Adhurim, 2016. "Cross-Border Technology Differences and Trade Barriers: Evidence from German and French Electricity Markets," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 237, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    11. Jacques Percebois & Stanislas Pommeret, 2021. "What can be learned from the French partial nuclear shutdown of 2016?," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2021(1), pages 5-19.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Würzburg, Klaas & Labandeira, Xavier & Linares, Pedro, 2013. "Renewable generation and electricity prices: Taking stock and new evidence for Germany and Austria," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(S1), pages 159-171.
    2. Gürtler, Marc & Paulsen, Thomas, 2018. "The effect of wind and solar power forecasts on day-ahead and intraday electricity prices in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 150-162.
    3. Bell, William Paul & Wild, Phillip & Foster, John & Hewson, Michael, 2017. "Revitalising the wind power induced merit order effect to reduce wholesale and retail electricity prices in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 224-241.
    4. Dillig, Marius & Jung, Manuel & Karl, Jürgen, 2016. "The impact of renewables on electricity prices in Germany – An estimation based on historic spot prices in the years 2011–2013," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 7-15.
    5. de Menezes, Lilian M. & Houllier, Melanie A., 2015. "Germany's nuclear power plant closures and the integration of electricity markets in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 357-368.
    6. François Benhmad & Jacques Percebois, 2016. "Wind power feed-in impact on electricity prices in Germany 2009-2013," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 13(1), pages 81-96, June.
    7. Sapio, Alessandro, 2019. "Greener, more integrated, and less volatile? A quantile regression analysis of Italian wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 452-469.
    8. Daron Acemoglu, Ali Kakhbod, and Asuman Ozdaglar, 2017. "Competition in Electricity Markets with Renewable Energy Sources," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(KAPSARC S).
    9. Browne, Oliver & Poletti, Stephen & Young, David, 2015. "How does market power affect the impact of large scale wind investment in 'energy only' wholesale electricity markets?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 17-27.
    10. Ketterer, Janina C., 2014. "The impact of wind power generation on the electricity price in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 270-280.
    11. Pradhan, Ashis Kumar & Rout, Sandhyarani & Khan, Imran Ahmed, 2021. "Does market concentration affect wholesale electricity prices? An analysis of the Indian electricity sector in the COVID-19 pandemic context," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    12. Shao, Jing & Chen, Huanhuan & Li, Jinke & Liu, Guy, 2022. "An evaluation of the consumer-funded renewable obligation scheme in the UK for wind power generation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    13. Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho & Silva, Patrícia Pereira da, 2019. "The “Merit-order effect” of wind and solar power: Volatility and determinants," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 54-62.
    14. Percebois, Jacques & Pommeret, Stanislas, 2019. "Storage cost induced by a large substitution of nuclear by intermittent renewable energies: The French case," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    15. Woo, C.K. & Chen, Y. & Olson, A. & Moore, J. & Schlag, N. & Ong, A. & Ho, T., 2017. "Electricity price behavior and carbon trading: New evidence from California," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 531-543.
    16. Lilian de Menezes & Melanie A. Houllier, 2013. "Modelling Germany´s Energy Transition and its Potential Effect on European Electricity Spot Markets," EcoMod2013 5395, EcoMod.
    17. Clò, Stefano & D'Adamo, Gaetano, 2015. "The dark side of the sun: How solar power production affects the market value of solar and gas sources," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 523-530.
    18. Abban, Abdul Rashid & Hasan, Mohammad Z., 2021. "Solar energy penetration and volatility transmission to electricity markets—An Australian perspective," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 434-449.
    19. Hirth, Lion, 2013. "The market value of variable renewables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 218-236.
    20. Woo, C.K. & Moore, J. & Schneiderman, B. & Ho, T. & Olson, A. & Alagappan, L. & Chawla, K. & Toyama, N. & Zarnikau, J., 2016. "Merit-order effects of renewable energy and price divergence in California’s day-ahead and real-time electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 299-312.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital; electricity market; renewables; market coupling; GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L1 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance
    • L5 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1527. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jake Dyer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.