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Valuation anomalies for interconnector transmission rights

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  • McInerney, Celine
  • Bunn, Derek
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    Abstract

    Whilst the acquisition of physical transmission interconnector rights between two or more electricity markets can be structured as spread options on the spot prices of electricity between connected markets, empirical evidence suggests that actual prices may be quite different. This raises issues for the valuation of transmission rights, particularly in the European context of market harmonisation, and the use of transmission rights with increasing levels of wind penetration. We examine the price differentials between the Irish and British electricity markets, where explicit transmission capacity auctions have been persistently undersubscribed and transmission rights acquired but not fully utilised. We find significant empirical indications that auction prices for transmission rights are undervalued against both arbitrage and spread option valuations. We also find significant power flows against the efficient price spread direction. A survey of a group of experts with an interest in trading power between Ireland and Britain inform a number of possible explanations for the apparent inefficiencies. These include ex-post pricing in the Irish market, intermittent wind and strategic behaviour by dominant firms.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 55 (2013)
    Issue (Month): C ()
    Pages: 565-578

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:55:y:2013:i:c:p:565-578

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

    Related research

    Keywords: Transmission rights; Interconnector; Valuation;

    References

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    1. Severin Borenstein & James. Bushnell & Steven Stoft, 2000. "The Competitive Effects of Transmission Capacity in A Deregulated Electricity Industry," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(2), pages 294-325, Summer.
    2. Kristiansen, Tarjei, 2007. "An assessment of the Danish-German cross-border auctions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3369-3382, June.
    3. Gorecki, Paul K., 2011. "The Internal EU Electricity Market: Implications for Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS23.
    4. Devitt, Conor & Diffney, Seán & FitzGerald, John & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Tuohy, Aidan, 2011. "Goldilocks and the Three Electricity Prices: Are Irish Prices "Just Right"?," Papers WP372, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Dempster, M.A.H. & Medova, Elena & Tang, Ke, 2008. "Long term spread option valuation and hedging," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2530-2540, December.
    6. Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura, 2009. "Welfare and competition effects of electricity interconnection between Ireland and Great Britain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4679-4688, November.
    7. Benjamin F. Hobbs & Fieke A.M. Rijkers & Maroeska G. Boots, 2005. "The More Cooperation, The More Competition? A Cournot Analysis of the Benefits of Electric Market Coupling," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 69-98.
    8. Cartea, Álvaro & González-Pedraz, Carlos, 2012. "How much should we pay for interconnecting electricity markets? A real options approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 14-30.
    9. Derek Bunn & Georg Zachmann, 2010. "Inefficient arbitrage in inter-regional electricity transmission," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 243-265, June.
    10. Jacques Pelkmans & Lionel Kapff, 2010. "Interconnector Investment for a Well-functioning Internal Market. What EU regime of regulatory incentives?," Bruges European Economic Research Papers 18, European Economic Studies Department, College of Europe.
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    Cited by:
    1. Curtis, John & di Cosmo, Valeria & Deane, Paul, 2014. "Climate Policy, Interconnection and Carbon Leakage: The Effect of Unilateral UK Policy on Electricity and GHG Emissions in Ireland," Papers RB2014/1/7, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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