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Valuation anomalies for interconnector transmission rights

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  • McInerney, Celine
  • Bunn, Derek

Abstract

Whilst the acquisition of physical transmission interconnector rights between two or more electricity markets can be structured as spread options on the spot prices of electricity between connected markets, empirical evidence suggests that actual prices may be quite different. This raises issues for the valuation of transmission rights, particularly in the European context of market harmonisation, and the use of transmission rights with increasing levels of wind penetration. We examine the price differentials between the Irish and British electricity markets, where explicit transmission capacity auctions have been persistently undersubscribed and transmission rights acquired but not fully utilised. We find significant empirical indications that auction prices for transmission rights are undervalued against both arbitrage and spread option valuations. We also find significant power flows against the efficient price spread direction. A survey of a group of experts with an interest in trading power between Ireland and Britain inform a number of possible explanations for the apparent inefficiencies. These include ex-post pricing in the Irish market, intermittent wind and strategic behaviour by dominant firms.

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  • McInerney, Celine & Bunn, Derek, 2013. "Valuation anomalies for interconnector transmission rights," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 565-578.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:55:y:2013:i:c:p:565-578
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.12.050
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    5. Valeria Di Cosmo & Laura Malaguzzi Valeri, 2018. "How Much Does Wind Power Reduce $$\text {CO}_{2}$$ CO 2 Emissions? Evidence from the Irish Single Electricity Market," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 71(3), pages 645-669, November.
    6. Curtis, John & Devitt, Niamh & di Cosmo, Valeria & Farrell, Niall & FitzGerald, John & Hyland, Marie & Lynch, Muireann & Lyons, Sean & McCoy, Daire & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Walsh, Darragh, 2014. "Irish Energy Policy: An Analysis of Current Issues," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number rs37 edited by FitzGerald, John & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura, June.
    7. Lynch & John Curtis, 2016. "The effects of wind generation capacity on electricity prices and generation costs: a Monte Carlo analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 133-151, January.
    8. Sébastien Phan & Fabien Roques, 2015. "Is the depressive effect of renewables on power prices contagious? A cross border econometric analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1527, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. de Menezes, Lilian M. & Houllier, Melanie A., 2015. "Germany's nuclear power plant closures and the integration of electricity markets in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 357-368.
    10. Higgins, P. & Li, K. & Devlin, J. & Foley, A.M., 2015. "The significance of interconnector counter-trading in a security constrained electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 110-124.
    11. Di Cosmo, Valeria & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura, 2018. "Wind, storage, interconnection and the cost of electricity generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-18.
    12. Meyer, Roland & Gore, Olga, 2015. "Cross-border effects of capacity mechanisms: Do uncoordinated market design changes contradict the goals of the European market integration?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 9-20.
    13. Hyland, Marie, 2016. "Restructuring European electricity markets – A panel data analysis," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 33-42.
    14. Gaffney, F. & Deane, J.P. & Gallachóir, B.P.Ó, 2017. "A 100 year review of electricity policy in Ireland (1916–2015)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 67-79.
    15. Di Cosmo, Valeria & Lynch, Muireann Á., 2016. "Competition and the single electricity market: Which lessons for Ireland?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 40-47.
    16. Shao, Jing & Chen, Huanhuan & Li, Jinke & Liu, Guy, 2022. "An evaluation of the consumer-funded renewable obligation scheme in the UK for wind power generation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    17. Sapio, Alessandro, 2019. "Greener, more integrated, and less volatile? A quantile regression analysis of Italian wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 452-469.
    18. Dutton, Joseph & Lockwood, Matthew, 2017. "Ideas, institutions and interests in the politics of cross-border electricity interconnection: Greenlink, Britain and Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 375-385.
    19. Cartea, Álvaro & Jaimungal, Sebastian & Qin, Zhen, 2019. "Speculative trading of electricity contracts in interconnected locations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 3-20.
    20. Malaguzzi-Valeri, Laura & di Cosmo, Valeria, 2014. "The Effect of Wind on Electricity CO2 Emissions: The Case of Ireland," Papers WP493, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    21. Curtis, John & Lynch, Muireann Á. & Zubiate, Laura, 2016. "Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from electricity: The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 487-496.
    22. Gore, Olga & Vanadzina, Evgenia & Viljainen, Satu, 2016. "Linking the energy-only market and the energy-plus-capacity market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 52-61.
    23. Valeria Di Cosmo & Laura Malaguzzi Valeri, 2016. "Wind, storage, interconnection and the cost of electricity," Working Papers 2016/30, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).

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