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Modeling Technology Adoption as an Irreversible Investment Under Uncertainty: The Case of the Turkish Electricity Supply Industry

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Author Info

  • Reinhard Madlener

    ()
    (Center for Energy Policy and Economics CEPE, Department of Management, Technology and Economics, ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

  • Gürkan Kumbaroglu

    ()
    (Department of Industrial Engineering, Bogaziçi University, 34342 Bebek, Istanbul, Turkey)

  • Volkan S. Ediger

    (Cumhurbaskanligi, Çankaya, TR-06689 Ankara, Turkey)

Abstract

This paper studies energy conversion technology adoption in the electricity supply sector from the perspective of irreversible investments under uncertainty, and with a particular interest in environmental sustainability. We develop a dynamic technology adoption model that is firmly rooted in economic theory and that takes important determinants of optimal investment in available technologies (e.g. life-cycle capital and operation cost) explicitly into account. Uncertainty is introduced for the demand for peak-load capacity, unit generation costs, and for the average electricity price. We test the model empirically by applying it to data for the Turkish power supply industry. The model-guided optimal investment results based on net present value considerations exhibit significant deviations from the actual investment outcome. We find that the increased adoption of natural-gas-fired power generation technologies in Turkey in recent years, while contributing to environmental sustainability, has had doubtful merits from an investor’s perspective.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich in its series CEPE Working paper series with number 04-30.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cee:wpcepe:04-30

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Related research

Keywords: Technology adoption; Irreversible investment under uncertainty; Real options; Electricity supply; Dynamic optimization;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gürkan Kumbaroglu & Reinhard Madlener & Mustafa Demirel, 2004. "A Real Options Evaluation Model for the Diffusion Prospects of New Renewable Power Generation Technologies," CEPE Working paper series 04-35, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
  2. Reinhard Madlener & Carlos Henggeler Antunes & Luis C. Dias, 2006. "Multi-Criteria versus Data Envelopment Analysis for Assessing the Performance of Biogas Plants," CEPE Working paper series 06-49, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
  3. Rentizelas, Athanasios A. & Tolis, Athanasios I. & Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P., 2012. "Investment planning in electricity production under CO2 price uncertainty," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 622-629.
  4. Reinhard Madlener & Stefan Vögtli, 2006. "Diffusion of bioenergy in urban areas: socio-economic analysis of the planned Swiss wood-fired cogeneration plant in Basel," CEPE Working paper series 06-53, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
  5. Reinhard Madlener & Martin Koller, 2006. "Economic and CO2 mitigation impacts of promoting biomass heating systems: an input-output study for Vorarlberg, Austria," CEPE Working paper series 06-50, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
  6. Tolis, Athanasios I. & Rentizelas, Athanasios A. & Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P., 2010. "Time-dependent opportunities in energy business: A comparative study of locally available renewable and conventional fuels," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 384-393, January.
  7. Fuss, Sabine & Johansson, Daniel J.A. & Szolgayova, Jana & Obersteiner, Michael, 2009. "Impact of climate policy uncertainty on the adoption of electricity generating technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 733-743, February.
  8. Bergek, Anna & Mignon, Ingrid & Sundberg, Gunnel, 2013. "Who invests in renewable electricity production? Empirical evidence and suggestions for further research," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 568-581.
  9. Eberhard Jochem, 2005. "An Agenda for Energy and Material Efficiency Policy – An Element of Technology Policy for a More Sustainable Use of Natural Resources," CEPE Working paper series 05-40, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
  10. Silvia Banfi & Massimo Filippini & Andrea Horeh�jov�, 2012. "Using a choice experiment to estimate the benefits of a reduction of externalities in urban areas with special focus on electrosmog," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(3), pages 387-397, January.
  11. Silvia Banfi & Massimo Filippini & Andrea Horehájová, 2007. "Hedonic Price Functions for Zurich and Lugano with Special Focus on Electrosmog," CEPE Working paper series 07-57, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
  12. Rentizelas, Athanasios & Georgakellos, Dimitrios, 2014. "Incorporating life cycle external cost in optimization of the electricity generation mix," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 134-149.
  13. Zon, Adriaan van & Fuss, Sabine, 2006. "Irreversible Investment under Uncertainty in Electricity Generation: A Clay-Clay-Vintage Portfolio Approach with an Application to Climate Change Policy in the UK," MERIT Working Papers 035, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  14. Fernandes, Bartolomeu & Cunha, Jorge & Ferreira, Paula, 2011. "The use of real options approach in energy sector investments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4491-4497.
  15. Tolis, Athanasios I. & Rentizelas, Athanasios A., 2011. "An impact assessment of electricity and emission allowances pricing in optimised expansion planning of power sector portfolios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 3791-3806.
  16. Lise, Wietze & Kruseman, Gideon, 2008. "Long-term price and environmental effects in a liberalised electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 230-248, March.
  17. ToksarI, M. Duran, 2009. "Estimating the net electricity energy generation and demand using the ant colony optimization approach: Case of Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1181-1187, March.
  18. Huang, Yun-Hsun & Wu, Jung-Hua, 2008. "A portfolio risk analysis on electricity supply planning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 627-641, February.
  19. Hervé-Mignucci, Morgan, 2011. "Rôle du signal prix du carbone sur les décisions d'investissement des entreprises," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/8200 edited by Keppler, Jan Horst.

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