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Cost Curves for Gas Supply Security: The Case of Bulgaria

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Author Info

  • Silve, F.
  • Noel, P.

Abstract

We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of various policy options and infrastructure investment proposals to improve the security of gas supply in Bulgaria, one of the most gas insecure countries in the European Union. We do this by computing ‘security of supply cost curve’ for different gas supply disruption scenarios. The curves show the cumulative amount of security of supply on the horizontal axis and the unit cost of security on the vertical axis. Measures should be implemented by order or rising unit cost until the public authorities’ preferred level of security is achieved. Our results show that a costeffective gas supply security policy for Bulgaria would concentrate on two measures: (1) allowing reverse-flow transactions on the transit pipelines to Greece and Turkey to access the LNG terminals in these countries in case of disruption in Russian gas supplies and, (2) ensuring effective dual-fuel capability for Bulgaria’s heat generation plants. The infrastructure options actually considered by the Bulgarian authorities and gas industry (expanding the withdrawal rate of the Chiren underground gas storage and building a new gas interconnector pipeline with Greece) appear to be much more costly.

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File URL: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe1056.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 1056.

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Date of creation: 01 Oct 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1056

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Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm

Related research

Keywords: Natural Gas; Security of Supply; Energy Policy; Bulgaria; EU;

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  1. Findlater, Sachi & Noel, Pierre, 2009. "On the Draft Regulation on Gas Supply Security," Working paper 33, Regulation2point0.
  2. Le Coq, Chloe & Paltseva, Elena, 2009. "Measuring the Security of External Energy Supply in the European Union," SITE Working Paper Series 2, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics, Stockholm School of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Edward Hunter Christie & Pavel K. Bev & Volodymyr Golovko, 2011. "Vulnerability and Bargaining Power in EU-Russia Gas Relations," FIW Research Reports series III-003, FIW.
  2. Noël, P. & Findlater, S. & Chyong, C. K., 2012. "The Cost of Improving Gas Supply Security in the Baltic States," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1204, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

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