The Timing and Returns of Mergers and Acquisitions in Oligopolistic Industries
AbstractThis paper studies the interaction between product market competition and takeover activity. We develop a dynamic model in which profit-maximizing production decisions of all firms in an industry as well as the timing and terms of a merger between two firms are jointly determined. We show that there exists an asymmetric equilibrium in production policies with endogenous synergy gains, in which heterogeneous firms have an incentive to merge because restructuring decisions are motivated by operating and strategic benefits. Based on the resulting equilibrium, the model formalizes a number of insights consistent with the available evidence. For example, takeover activities are more likely in more concentrated industries or in industries that are more exposed to industrywide demand shocks. Notably, merger returns are higher for small targets than for large acquirers if merger costs are identical. Furthermore, the model generates a number of novel testable predictions. We find that returns to merging and rival firms arising from restructuring are higher when industry competition is lower. Contrary to some conclusions in recent real options research, increased industry competition delays (rather than accelerates) the timing of takeovers. While industry competition allows us to endogenize the synergy gains in a real options model of mergers, it may also affect an acquisition contest with multiple bidders. It is perhaps surprising, however, that bidder competition does not induce a bid premium in every industry since we demonstrate that it only interacts with industry competition under certain conditions. Moreover, the bid premium declines with product market competition. Finally, the model relates dispersion in firm size (tangible assets) to takeover activity and returns in that mergers are more likely and yield larger returns in industries with more dispersion in firm size.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Boston University - Department of Economics in its series Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number wp2008-022.
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
anticompetitive effect; industry structure; real options; takeovers;
Other versions of this item:
- Jianjun Miao & Dirk Hackbarth, 2008. "The Timing and Returns of Mergers and Acquisitions in Oligopolistic Industries," 2008 Meeting Papers 12, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
- G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Singal, Vijay, 1996. "Airline Mergers and Competition: An Integration of Stock and Product Price Effects," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(2), pages 233-68, April.
- Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 2001.
"Stock Market Driven Acquisitions,"
NBER Working Papers
8439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bengt Holmstrom & Steven N. Kaplan, 2001. "Corporate Governance and Merger Activity in the U.S.: Making Sense of the 1980s and 1990s," NBER Working Papers 8220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Erwan Morellec & Alexei Zhdanov, 2006.
"Financing and Takeovers,"
Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series
06-22, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Dirk Hackbarth & Erwan Morellec, 2008.
"Stock Returns in Mergers and Acquisitions,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1213-1252, 06.
- Lambrecht, Bart M., 2004. "The timing and terms of mergers motivated by economies of scale," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 41-62, April.
- Salant, Stephen W & Switzer, Sheldon & Reynolds, Robert J, 1983. "Losses from Horizontal Merger: The Effects of an Exogenous Change in Industry Structure on Cournot-Nash Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(2), pages 185-99, May.
- Mitchell, Mark L. & Mulherin, J. Harold, 1996. "The impact of industry shocks on takeover and restructuring activity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 193-229, June.
- Gregor Andrade & Mark Mitchell & Erik Stafford, 2001. "New Evidence and Perspectives on Mergers," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 103-120, Spring.
- Farrell, J. & Shapiro, C., 1988.
"Horizontal Mergers: An Equilibrium Analysis,"
17, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Discussion Paper.
- Farrell, Joseph & Shapiro, Carl, 1988. "Horizontal Mergers: An Equilibrium Analysis," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt0tp305nx, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Joseph Farrell and Carl Shapiro., 1988. "Horizontal Mergers: An Equilibrium Analysis," Economics Working Papers 8880, University of California at Berkeley.
- G. William Schwert, 1996.
"Mark-Up Pricing in Mergers and Acquisitions,"
NBER Working Papers
4863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kim, E Han & Singal, Vijay, 1993. "Mergers and Market Power: Evidence from the Airline Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 549-69, June.
- Jianjun Miao, 2005.
"Optimal Capital Structure and Industry Dynamics,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2621-2659, December.
- Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2007.
"Strategic Merger Waves: A Theory of Musical Chairs,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6159, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2008. "Strategic merger waves: A theory of musical chairs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 1-26, May.
- Flavio Toxvaerd, 2004. "Strategic Merger Waves: A Theory of Musical Chairs," Discussion Paper Series dp359, The Center for the Study of Rationality, Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
- Matthew Rhodes-Kropf & S. Viswanathan, 2004. "Market Valuation and Merger Waves," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(6), pages 2685-2718, December.
- Eckbo, B. Espen, 1983. "Horizontal mergers, collusion, and stockholder wealth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-4), pages 241-273, April.
- Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2004.
"Do Tests of Capital Structure Theory Mean What They Say?,"
Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings
646, Econometric Society.
- Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2007. "Do Tests of Capital Structure Theory Mean What They Say?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1747-1787, 08.
- McAfee, R. Preston & Williams, Michael A., 1988. "Can event studies detect anticompetitive mergers?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 199-203.
- Borenstein, Severin, 1990. "Airline Mergers, Airport Dominance, and Market Power," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 400-404, May.
- Margrabe, William, 1978. "The Value of an Option to Exchange One Asset for Another," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 177-86, March.
- White, Lawrence J, 1987. "Antitrust and Merger Policy: A Review and Critique," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 13-22, Fall.
- Werden, Gregory J & Froeb, Luke M, 1998. "The Entry-Inducing Effects of Horizontal Mergers: An Exploratory Analysis," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 525-43, December.
- Fries, Steven & Miller, Marcus & Perraudin, William, 1997. "Debt in Industry Equilibrium," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(1), pages 39-67.
- Margsiri, Worawat & Melloy, Antonio S. & Ruckesz, Martin E., 2008. "A Dynamic Analysis of Growth via Acquisition," CEI Working Paper Series 2008-8, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Harford, Jarrad, 2005. "What drives merger waves?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 529-560, September.
- Perry, Martin K & Porter, Robert H, 1985. "Oligopoly and the Incentive for Horizontal Merger," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 219-27, March.
- Matthew Rhodes-Kropf & David T. Robinson, 2004.
"The Market for Mergers and the Boundaries of the Firm,"
05-18, Utrecht School of Economics.
- Matthew Rhodes-Kropf & David T. Robinson, 2008. "The Market for Mergers and the Boundaries of the Firm," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1169-1211, 06.
- Eckbo, B Espen, 1985. "Mergers and the Market Concentration Doctrine: Evidence from the Capital Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(3), pages 325-49, July.
- Morellec, Erwan & Zhdanov, Alexei, 2005. "The dynamics of mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 649-672, September.
- Moeller, Sara B. & Schlingemann, Frederik P. & Stulz, Rene M., 2004. "Firm size and the gains from acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 201-228, August.
- Gordon M Phillips & Vojislav Maksimovic, 1999.
"The Market for Corporate Assets: Who Engages in Mergers and Asset Sales and are there Efficiency Gains?,"
99-12, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- Vojislav Maksimovic, 2001. "The Market for Corporate Assets: Who Engages in Mergers and Asset Sales and Are There Efficiency Gains?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2019-2065, December.
- Andrade, Gregor & Stafford, Erik, 2004. "Investigating the economic role of mergers," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-36, January.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Courtney Sullivan).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.