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Strategic Merger Waves: A Theory of Musical Chairs

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Author Info
Toxvaerd, Flavio

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Abstract

This paper proposes an explanation of merger waves based on the interaction between competitive pressure and irreversibility of mergers in an uncertain environment. A set of acquirers compete over time for scarce targets. At each point in time, an acquirer can either postpone a takeover attempt, or raid immediately. By postponing the takeover attempt, an acquirer may gain from more favourable future market conditions, but runs the risk of being preempted by rivals. First, a complete information model is considered, and it is shown that the above tradeoff leads to a continuum of subgame perfect equilibria in monotone strategies that are strictly Pareto ranked. All these equilibria share the feature that all acquirers rush simultaneously in merger waves. The model is then extended to a dynamic global game by introducing slightly noisy private information about merger profitability. This game is shown to have a unique Markov perfect Bayesian equilibrium in monotone strategies, and the timing of the merger wave can thus be predicted. Last, the comparative dynamics predictions of the model are related to stylized facts.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6159.

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Date of creation: Mar 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6159

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Related research
Keywords: dynamic global games merger waves preemption real options games

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
D92 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Investment, or Financing
G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
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  5. Flavio Toxvaerd, 2004. "Strategic Merger Waves: A Theory of Musical Chairs," Discussion Paper Series dp359, Center for Rationality and Interactive Decision Theory, Hebrew University, Jerusalem. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Bradley, Michael & Desai, Anand & Kim, E. Han, 1988. "Synergistic gains from corporate acquisitions and their division between the stockholders of target and acquiring firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-40, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Albert Banal-Estañol & Paul Heidhues & Rainer Nitsche & Jo Seldeslacht, 2006. "Merger Clusters during Economic Booms," City University Economics Discussion Papers 06/07, Department of Economics, City University, London. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Flavio Toxvaerd, 2005. "Record Breaking and Temporal Clustering," Discussion Paper Series dp395, Center for Rationality and Interactive Decision Theory, Hebrew University, Jerusalem. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gary Gorton & Matthias Kahl & Richard Rosen, 2005. "Eat or Be Eaten: A Theory of Mergers and Merger Waves," NBER Working Papers 11364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Cabral, Luís M B, 2003. "An Equilibrium Approach to International Merger Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3878, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2007. "Strategic Merger Waves: A Theory of Musical Chairs," CEPR Discussion Papers 6159, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Giannitsarou, Chryssi & Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2007. "Recursive Global Games," CEPR Discussion Papers 6470, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Mathevet, Laurent, . "A contraction principle for finite global games," Working Papers 1243, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jakub Steiner, 2006. "Coordination Cycles," ESE Discussion Papers 162, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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