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Do Households Anchor their Inflation Expectations? Theory and Evidence from a Household Survey

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  • J. Easaw
  • R. Golinelli
  • M. Malgarini

Abstract

The purpose of the present paper is to study how households form inflation expectations. Using a novel survey-base dataset of Italian households opinions of inflation we investigate two separate, but related, types of behavior: inattentiveness and anchoring . The present analysis extends the existing literature by incorporating explicitly inflation targets and distinguishing between aggregate and disaggregate dynamics based on demographic groups. In addition, we extend the literature by considering both the short- and long-run dynamics as households update their inflation expectations while also accounting for their state-varying behavior. All these issues provide important insights into understanding actual inflation dynamics and the conduct of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Easaw & R. Golinelli & M. Malgarini, 2012. "Do Households Anchor their Inflation Expectations? Theory and Evidence from a Household Survey," Working Papers wp842, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    • Handle: RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp842
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Easaw, Joshy & Golinelli, Roberto & Malgarini, Marco, 2013. "What determines households inflation expectations? Theory and evidence from a household survey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-13.
    2. Ehrmann, Michael & Soudan, Michel & Stracca, Livio, 2012. "Explaining EU Citizens' Trust in the ECB in Normal and Crisis Times," Economics Series 289, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    3. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael, 2013. "Anchoring of Consumers' Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Microdata," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79889, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Michael J. Lamla & Lena Draeger, 2013. "Anchoring of Consumers' Inflation Expectations," KOF Working papers 13-339, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    5. Malka de Castro Campos & Federica Teppa, 2016. "Individual inflation expectations in a declining-inflation environment: Evidence from survey data," DNB Working Papers 508, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    6. Murillo Garza José Antonio & Sánchez-Romeu Paula, 2012. "Testing the Predictive Power of Mexican Consumers' Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 2012-13, Banco de México.
    7. Jakob de Haan & Marco Hoeberichts & Renske Maas & Federica Teppa, 2016. "Inflation in the euro area and why it matters," DNB Occasional Studies 1403, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    8. Mellina, Sathya & Schmidt, Tobias, 2018. "The role of central bank knowledge and trust for the public's inflation expectations," Discussion Papers 32/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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