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System-wide liquidity risk in the United Kingdom’s large-value payment system: an empirical analysis

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  • Perlin, Marcelo

    ()
    (Professor Adjunto - Escola de Administração (Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil))

  • Schanz, Jochen

    ()
    (Bank of England)

Abstract

When settling their own liabilities and those of their clients, settlement banks rely on incoming payments to fund a part of their outgoing payments. We investigate their behaviour in CHAPS, the United Kingdom’s large-value payment system. Our estimates suggest that in normal times, banks increase their payment outflows when their liquidity is above target and immediately following the receipt of payments. We use these estimates to determine the robustness of this payment system to two hypothetical behavioural changes. In the first, a single bank stops sending payments, perhaps because of an operational problem. In the second, it pays out exactly what it previously received, relying exclusively on the liquidity provided by other system members. Using the observed uncertainty around our estimated behavioural equations, we derive probabilistic statements about the time at which the bank’s counterparties would run out of liquidity if they followed their estimated normal-time behaviour.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 427.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 31 May 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0427

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Keywords: Payment systems; banks; network models; contagion; systemic risk; liquidity risk;

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  1. Becher, Christopher & Millard, Stephen & Soramäki, Kimmo, 2008. "The network topology of CHAPS Sterling," Bank of England working papers 355, Bank of England.
  2. Christopher Becher & Marco Galbiati & Merxe Tudela, 2008. "The timing and funding of CHAPS sterling payments," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 113-133.
  3. Beyeler, Walter E. & Glass, Robert J. & Bech, Morten L. & Soramäki, Kimmo, 2007. "Congestion and cascades in payment systems," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 384(2), pages 693-718.
  4. Kimmo Soramaki & Morten L. Bech & Jeffrey Arnold & Robert J. Glass & Walter Beyeler, 2006. "The topology of interbank payment flows," Staff Reports 243, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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