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Financial contagion: extending the exposures network of the Mexican financial system

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  • Juan Solorzano-Margain

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  • Serafin Martinez-Jaramillo
  • Fabrizio Lopez-Gallo
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    Abstract

    Direct contagion has been widely studied in recent years and little evidence has been found to be relevant to the study of systemic risk. However, we argue that this limited contagion effect might be associated with a lack of relevant data. A common assumption for the estimation of the matrices of exposures is to apply the maximum entropy principle to deal with data gaps; such an assumption might lead to an underestimation of contagion risk. In this paper, there are no data gaps and the information set is extended from interbank exposures alone to exposures among most of the financial intermediaries in the Mexican financial system (we even include exposures to some international foreign banks). Naturally, the contagion risk of an extended network of exposures changes with respect to the interbank exposures network, as there are many more institutions which can be the source of contagion and there are more institutions which can fail due to contagion. The most important contribution of this paper is that it provides evidence on financial contagion with an extended exposures network under stressful conditions. The results presented here support the international efforts by the Bank for International Settlements, the International Monetary Fund and the Financial Stability Board to increase the amount of information available which can be used to assess systemic risk and contagion based on exposures and funding data. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10287-013-0167-5
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Computational Management Science.

    Volume (Year): 10 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 2 (June)
    Pages: 125-155

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    Handle: RePEc:spr:comgts:v:10:y:2013:i:2:p:125-155

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=111894

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    Related research

    Keywords: Systemic risk; Financial contagion; Interbank market; Macroeconomic stress testing; Interfinancial exposures;

    References

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    1. Soramäki, Kimmo & Bech, Morten L. & Arnold, Jeffrey & Glass, Robert J. & Beyeler, Walter E., 2007. "The topology of interbank payment flows," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 379(1), pages 317-333.
    2. David Aikman & Piergiorgio Alessandri & Bruno Eklund & Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia, & Elizabeth Martin, & Nada Mora & Gabriel Sterne & Matthew Willison, 2011. "Funding Liquidity Risk in a Quantitative Model of Systemic Stability," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.), Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 12, pages 371-410 Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Iori, Giulia & De Masi, Giulia & Precup, Ovidiu Vasile & Gabbi, Giampaolo & Caldarelli, Guido, 2008. "A network analysis of the Italian overnight money market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 259-278, January.
    4. Gary Koop, 2011. "Forecasting with Medium and Large Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 1117, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    5. Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
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    Cited by:
    1. Antoaneta Sergueiva, 2013. "Systemic Risk Identification, Modelling, Analysis, and Monitoring: An Integrated Approach," Papers 1310.6486, arXiv.org.
    2. Annika Birch & Tomaso Aste, 2014. "Systemic Losses Due to Counter Party Risk in a Stylized Banking System," Papers 1402.3688, arXiv.org.

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