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Liquidity Stress-Tester: A macro model for stress-testing banks' liquidity risk

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  • Jan Willem van den End

Abstract

This paper presents a macro stress-testing model for market and funding liquidity risks of banks, which have been main drivers of the recent financial crisis. The model takes into account the first and second round (feedback) effects of shocks, induced by behavioural reactions of heterogeneous banks, and idiosyncratic reputation effects. The impact on liquidity risk is simulated by a Monte Carlo approach. This generates distributions of liquidity buffers for each scenario round, including the probability of a liquidity shortfall. An application to Dutch banks illustrates that the second round effects have more impact than the first round effects and hit all types of banks, indicative of systemic risk. This lends support policy initiatives to enhance banks' liquidity buffers and liquidity risk management, which could also contribute to prevent financial stability risks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 175.

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Date of creation: May 2008
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:175

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Keywords: banking; financial stability; stress-tests; liquidity risk;

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References

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  1. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2003. "Liquidity Shortages and Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 10071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Goetz von Peter, 2004. "Asset Prices and Banking Distress: A Macroeconomic Approach," Finance 0411034, EconWPA.
  3. von Peter, Goetz, 2009. "Asset prices and banking distress: A macroeconomic approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 298-319, September.
  4. Michael Boss & Gerald Krenn & Claus Puhr & Martin Summer, 2006. "Systemic Risk Monitor: A Model for Systemic Risk Analysis and Stress Testing of Banking Systems," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 11, pages 83-95.
  5. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Gianluigi Ferrucci & Hyun Song Shin, 2005. "Liquidity risk and contagion," Bank of England working papers 264, Bank of England.
  6. Nier, Erlend & Yang, Jing & Yorulmazer, Tanju & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2007. "Network models and financial stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2033-2060, June.
  7. Dimitrios P Tsomocos & O. AspachsC. GoodhartM. SegovianoL. Zicchino, 2006. "Searching for a Metric for Financial Stability," Economics Series Working Papers 2006-FE-09, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  8. Dimitrios P Tsomocos & Charles A.E. Goodhart, 2003. "A Model to Analyse Financial Fragility," Economics Series Working Papers 2003-FE-13, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  9. Adrian, T. & Shin, H S., 2008. "Liquidity and financial contagion," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 11, pages 1-7, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Frank A.G. den Butter, 2010. "The Macroeconomics of the Credit Crisis: In Search of Externalities for Macro-Prudential Supervision," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-052/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  2. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Stress-testing macro stress testing: does it live up to expectations?," BIS Working Papers 369, Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Julian Llorent, Maria del Carmen Melgar, Jose Antonio Ordaz, Flor MarĂ­a Guerrero, 2013. "Stress Tests and Liquidity Crisis in the Banking System," Equilibrium, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 8, pages 31-43.
  4. Guy, Kester & Lowe, Shane, 2012. "Tracing the Liquidity Effects on Bank Stability in Barbados," MPRA Paper 52205, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Francisco Nadal De Simone & Franco Stragiotti, 2010. "Market and Funding Liquidity Stress Testing of the Luxembourg Banking Sector," BCL working papers 45, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  6. Jan Willem van den End & Mostafa Tabbae, 2009. "When liquidity risk becomes a macro-prudential issue: Empirical evidence of bank behaviour," DNB Working Papers 230, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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