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Liquidity Stress-Tester: A macro model for stress-testing banks' liquidity risk

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Author Info
Jan Willem van den End

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Abstract

This paper presents a macro stress-testing model for market and funding liquidity risks of banks, which have been main drivers of the recent financial crisis. The model takes into account the first and second round (feedback) effects of shocks, induced by behavioural reactions of heterogeneous banks, and idiosyncratic reputation effects. The impact on liquidity risk is simulated by a Monte Carlo approach. This generates distributions of liquidity buffers for each scenario round, including the probability of a liquidity shortfall. An application to Dutch banks illustrates that the second round effects have more impact than the first round effects and hit all types of banks, indicative of systemic risk. This lends support policy initiatives to enhance banks' liquidity buffers and liquidity risk management, which could also contribute to prevent financial stability risks.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 175.

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Date of creation: May 2008
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:175

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Related research
Keywords: banking; financial stability; stress-tests; liquidity risk;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Capital and Ownership Structure

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  1. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Hyun Song Shin & Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2005. "Liquidity Risk and Contagion," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 556-566, 04/05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Goetz von Peter, 2004. "Asset prices and banking distress: a macroeconomic approach," BIS Working Papers 167, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2006. "A model to analyse financial fragility," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 107-142, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Liquidity Shortages and Banking Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 615-647, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Michael Boss & Gerald Krenn & Claus Puhr & Martin Summer, 2006. "Systemic Risk Monitor: A Model for Systemic Risk Analysis and Stress Testing of Banking Systems," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 11, pages 83-95, June. [Downloadable!]
  6. Lea Zicchino & Dimitrios Tsomocos & Miguel Segoviano & Charles Goodhart & Oriol Aspachs Bracon, 2006. "Searching for a Metric for Financial Stability," FMG Special Papers sp167, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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