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Inflation Dynamics in the Presence of Informal Labour Markets

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  • Paul Castillo
  • Carlos Montoro

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the effects of informal labour markets on the dynamics of inflation and on the transmission of aggregate demand and supply shocks. In doing so, we incorporate the informal sector in a modified New Keynesian model with labour market frictions as in the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model. Our main results show that the informal economy generates a "buffer" effect that diminishes the pressure of demand shocks on inflation. This finding is consistent with the empirical literature on the effects of informal labour markets in business cycle fluctuations. This result implies that, in economies with large informal labour markets, changes in interest rates are more effective in stimulating real output and there is less impact on inflation. Furthermore, the model produces cyclical flows from informal to formal employment, consistent with the data.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 372.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:372

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Keywords: Monetary Policy; New Keynesian Model; Informal Economy; Labour Market Frictions;

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References

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  1. Mark Gertler & Antonella Trigari, 2006. "Unemployment Fluctuations with Staggered Nash Wage Bargaining," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 525, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Krause, M.U. & Lubik, T.A., 2003. "The (Ir)relevance of Real Wage Rigidity in the New Keynesian Model with Search Frictions," Discussion Paper 2003-113, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  3. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2008. "Labor Markets and Monetary Policy: A New-Keynesian Model with Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 13897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Batini, Nicoletta & Kim, Young-Bae & Levine, Paul & Lotti, Emanuela, 2011. "Informal Labour and Credit Markets: A Survey," Working Papers 11/94, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  5. Carl Walsh & Federico Ravenna, 2007. "Vacancies, Unemployment, and the Phillips Curve," 2007 Meeting Papers 1014, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Inflation stabilization and welfare: The case of a distorted steady state," Discussion Papers 0405-04, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  7. Boeri, Tito & Garibaldi, Pietro, 2006. "Shadow Sorting," CEPR Discussion Papers 5487, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Tito Boeri & Pietro Garibaldi, 2005. "Shadow Sorting," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 125-163 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Jacques, Jean-François & Fugazza, Marco, 2004. "Labor market institutions, taxation and the underground economy," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/1888, Paris Dauphine University.
  9. Antonella Trigari, 2009. "Equilibrium Unemployment, Job Flows, and Inflation Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 1-33, 02.
  10. Chéron, A. & Langot, François, 1999. "The Phillips and Beveridge curves revisited," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9905, CEPREMAP.
  11. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, January.
  12. Thomas, Carlos, 2008. "Search and matching frictions and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 936-956, July.
  13. Kolm, Ann-Sofie & Larsen, Birthe, 2004. "Does tax evasion affect unemployment and educational choice?," Working Paper Series 2004:4, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
  14. Maurizio Bovi, 2007. "Shadow Employment and Labor Productivity Dynamics," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 21(4-5), pages 735-761, December.
  15. Carillo, Maria Rosaria & Pugno, Maurizio, 2004. "The underground economy and underdevelopment," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 257-279, September.
  16. Mariano Bosch, 2006. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Presence of Informal Labour Markets," CEP Discussion Papers dp0761, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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Cited by:
  1. SENBETA, Sisay Regassa, 2013. "Informality and macroeconomic fluctuations: A small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model with dual labour markets," Working Papers 2013002, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.

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