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Ambiguity in Financial Markets: Herding and Contrarian Behaviour

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Author Info
J L Ford, David Kelsey and W Pang

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Abstract

The paper studies the impact of ambiguity on history-dependant beahviour in the standard microstructure model of financial markets. We show that differences in ambiguity attitudes between market makers and traders can generate contrarian and herding behaviour in stock markets where assets are traded sequentially and trading prices are endogenously determined. We also show the mispricing can be only short-term, and in the long-run market is efficient in the sense that the market price aggregates information without distortions.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Birmingham in its series Discussion Papers with number 05-11.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: May 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:05-11

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Postal: Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT
Web page: http://www.economics.bham.ac.uk
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Related research
Keywords: Ambiguity; Choquet Expected Utility; Generalized Bayesian update; Optimism; Herding; Contrarian behaviour;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2003. "Financial Crises as Herds: Overturning the Critiques," NBER Working Papers 9658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Wakker, Peter P, 2001. "Testing and Characterizing Properties of Nonadditive Measures through Violations of the Sure-Thing Principle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 1039-59, July.
  3. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Gilboa, Itzhak, 1987. "Expected utility with purely subjective non-additive probabilities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 65-88, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Avery, Christopher & Zemsky, Peter, 1998. "Multidimensional Uncertainty and Herd Behavior in Financial Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 724-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kelsey, David, 1995. "Dutch Books Arguments and Learning in a Nonexpected Utility Framework," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 187-206, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2001. "Herd Behavior and Cascading in Capital Markets: A Review and Synthesis," MPRA Paper 5186, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Sarin, Rakesh K & Wakker, Peter, 1992. "A Simple Axiomatization of Nonadditive Expected Utility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(6), pages 1255-72, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Tallon, Jean-Marc, 1998. "Asymmetric Information, Nonadditive Expected Utility, and the Information Revealed by Prices: An Example," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 329-42, May.
  11. LOVO, Stefano & DECAMPS, Jean-Paul, 2002. "Risk aversion and herd behavior in financial markets," Les Cahiers de Recherche 758, HEC Paris. [Downloadable!]
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