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The Role of Ambiguity in the Evaluation of the Net Benefits of the MOSE System in the Venice Lagoon

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Author Info
Fulvio Fontini () (University of Padua)
Georg Umgiesser (ISMAR-CNR Venice)
Lucia Vergano () (University of Padua)

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Abstract

In this paper we apply the NEO-capacity framework to assess the role of ambiguity in a specific decision making problem. We first describe the framework and propose a graphical representation of the decision making functional. Then we apply it to a specific problem, namely, the role of ambiguity in the evaluation of the net benefits of the MOSE, the mobile barriers aimed to protect the Venice Lagoon from the periodic flooding (acqua alta). We show that the estimated impacts crucially depend on the level of optimism and pessimism of the decision maker and they substantially differ from the one calculated on the basis of the expected value. We also calculate the implicit ambiguity attitude of the decision maker.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno" in its series "Marco Fanno" Working Papers with number 0080.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pad:wpaper:0080

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Related research
Keywords: Decision making under ambiguity; NEO-Capacity; MOSE; acqua alta;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1980. "A Rehabilitation of the Principle of Insufficient Reason," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 94(3), pages 493-506, May.
  2. Basili, Marcello & Chateauneuf, Alain & Fontini, Fulvio, 2008. "Precautionary principle as a rule of choice with optimism on windfall gains and pessimism on catastrophic losses," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 485-491, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Chateauneuf, Alain & Eichberger, Jurgen & Grant, Simon, 2007. "Choice under uncertainty with the best and worst in mind: Neo-additive capacities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 538-567, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Marcello Basili & Alain Chateauneuf & Fulvio Fontini, 2004. "Choices under ambiguity with familiar and unfamiliar outcomes," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques b04115, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Sarin, Rakesh K & Wakker, Peter, 1992. "A Simple Axiomatization of Nonadditive Expected Utility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(6), pages 1255-72, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Chichilnisky, Graciela, 2000. "An axiomatic approach to choice under uncertainty with catastrophic risks," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 221-231, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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