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The Role of Ambiguity in the Evaluation of the Net Benefits of the MOSE System in the Venice Lagoon

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  • Fulvio Fontini

    ()
    (University of Padua)

  • Georg Umgiesser

    (ISMAR-CNR Venice)

  • Lucia Vergano

    ()
    (University of Padua)

Abstract

In this paper we apply the NEO-capacity framework to assess the role of ambiguity in a specific decision making problem. We first describe the framework and propose a graphical representation of the decision making functional. Then we apply it to a specific problem, namely, the role of ambiguity in the evaluation of the net benefits of the MOSE, the mobile barriers aimed to protect the Venice Lagoon from the periodic flooding (acqua alta). We show that the estimated impacts crucially depend on the level of optimism and pessimism of the decision maker and they substantially differ from the one calculated on the basis of the expected value. We also calculate the implicit ambiguity attitude of the decision maker.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno" in its series "Marco Fanno" Working Papers with number 0080.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pad:wpaper:0080

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Keywords: Decision making under ambiguity; NEO-Capacity; MOSE; acqua alta;

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  1. Michael Kilka & Martin Weber, 2001. "What Determines the Shape of the Probability Weighting Function Under Uncertainty?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(12), pages 1712-1726, December.
  2. Chateauneuf, Alain & Eichberger, Jürgen & Grant, Simon, 2003. "Choice under Uncertainty with the Best and Worst in Mind: Neo-additive Capacities," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 03-10, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  3. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
  4. Basili, Marcello & Chateauneuf, Alain & Fontini, Fulvio, 2008. "Precautionary principle as a rule of choice with optimism on windfall gains and pessimism on catastrophic losses," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 485-491, October.
  5. Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December.
  6. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1980. "A Rehabilitation of the Principle of Insufficient Reason," Munich Reprints in Economics 19914, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  7. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. " Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
  8. David Schmeidler, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7662, David K. Levine.
  9. Chichilnisky, Graciela, 2000. "An axiomatic approach to choice under uncertainty with catastrophic risks," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 221-231, July.
  10. Sarin, Rakesh K & Wakker, Peter, 1992. "A Simple Axiomatization of Nonadditive Expected Utility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(6), pages 1255-72, November.
  11. Marcello Basili & Alain Chateauneuf & Fulvio Fontini, 2005. "Choices Under Ambiguity With Familiar And Unfamiliar Outcomes," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 195-207, 03.
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Cited by:
  1. Caporin, Massimiliano & Fontini, Fulvio, 2014. "The Value of Protecting Venice from the Acqua Alta Phenomenon under Different Local Sea Level Rises," MPRA Paper 53779, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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