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From prejudice to racial profiling and back. A naἴve intuitive statistician's curse

Author

Listed:
  • Förster, Manuel

    (Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University)

  • Karos, Dominik

    (Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University)

Abstract

A designer conducts random searches to detect criminals, and may condition the search probability on individuals' appearance. She updates her belief about the distribution of criminals across appearances using her search results, but incorrectly takes her sample distribution for the population distribution. In equilibrium she employs optimal search probabilities given her belief, and her belief is consistent with her findings. We show that she will be discriminating an appearance if and only if she overestimates the probability of this appearance's being criminal. Moreover, in a linear model, tightening her budget will worsen the situation of those most discriminated against.

Suggested Citation

  • Förster, Manuel & Karos, Dominik, 2021. "From prejudice to racial profiling and back. A naἴve intuitive statistician's curse," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 644, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    • Handle: RePEc:bie:wpaper:644
    as

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    File URL: https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/download/2952189/2952194
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Keywords

    Biased inference; police search; naἴve intuitive statistics; racial profiling; discrimination;
    All these keywords.

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