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A Multinomial Approach to Early Warning Systems for Debt Crises

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  • Alessio Ciarlone

    ()
    (Bank of Italy)

  • Giorgio Trebeschi

    ()
    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

This paper develops an early warning system for sovereign debt crises, broadly defined as episodes of outright default, failure of a country to be current on external obligations and substantial access to IMF resources. It estimates a multinomial logit model that makes it possible to differentiate between three regimes labelled ‘tranquil’, ‘pre-crisis’ and ‘adjustment’. The model includes a large set of macroeconomic variables and is able to predict, in-sample, 78 per cent of onsets of crisis while sending false alarms in 34 per cent of tranquil cases; its out-of-sample performance is very similar, with 70 per cent of entries into crisis correctly predicted and 20 per cent of tranquil cases triggering false alarms.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 588.

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Date of creation: May 2006
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_588_06

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Keywords: emerging markets; early warning systems; debt crises; default;

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  1. Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Working Paper Series 0145, European Central Bank.
  2. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Ciarlone, Alessio & Trebeschi, Giorgio, 2005. "Designing an early warning system for debt crises," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 376-395, December.
  4. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
  6. Visco, Ignazio, 1978. "On obtaining the right sign of a coefficient estimate by omitting a variable from the regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 115-117, February.
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