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Predicting vulnerabilities in the EU banking sector: the role of global and domestic factors

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  • Behn, Markus
  • Detken, Carsten
  • Peltonen, Tuomas A.
  • Schudel, Willem

Abstract

We estimate a multivariate early-warning model to assess the usefulness of private credit and other macro-financial variables in predicting banking sector vulnerabilities. Using data for 23 European countries, we find that global variables and in particular global credit growth are strong predictors of domestic vulnerabilities. Moreover, domestic credit variables also have high predictive power, but should be complemented by other macro-financial indicators like house price growth and banking sector capitalization that play a salient role in predicting vulnerabilities. Our findings can inform decisions on the activation of macroprudential policy measures and suggest that policy makers should take a broad approach in the analytical models that support risk identification and calibration of tools. JEL Classification: G01, G21, G28

Suggested Citation

  • Behn, Markus & Detken, Carsten & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Schudel, Willem, 2016. "Predicting vulnerabilities in the EU banking sector: the role of global and domestic factors," ESRB Working Paper Series 29, European Systemic Risk Board.
    • Handle: RePEc:srk:srkwps:201629
    Note: 2203070
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    4. Samo Boh & Stefano Borgioli & Andra (Buca) Coman & Bogdan Chiriacescu & Anne Koban & Joao Veiga & Piotr Kusmierczyk & Mara Pirovano & Thomas Schepens, 2017. "European Macroprudential Database," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Data needs and Statistics compilation for macroprudential analysis, volume 46, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Bochmann, Paul & Hiebert, Paul & Schüler, Yves S. & Segoviano, Miguel, 2022. "Latent fragility: conditioning banks’ joint probability of default on the financial cycle," Working Paper Series 2698, European Central Bank.
    6. Cabral, Inês & Detken, Carsten & Fell, John & Henry, Jérôme & Hiebert, Paul & Kapadia, Sujit & Pires, Fatima & Salleo, Carmelo & Constâncio, Vítor & Nicoletti Altimari, Sergio, 2019. "Macroprudential policy at the ECB: Institutional framework, strategy, analytical tools and policies," Occasional Paper Series 227, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking crises; early-warning model; signalling approach; systemic risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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