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Entry, exit, and market structure in a changing climate

Author

Listed:
  • Michele Cascarano

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Filippo Natoli

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Andrea Petrella

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

Climate change has long-term effects on the size and composition of a country's business sector. Using administrative data on the universe of Italian firms, we find that an increase in the number of very hot days per year persistently reduces the growth rate of active firms in the market in the medium run. This is due to a drop in firm entry and an increase in firm exit, with relocation playing a minor role. A firm-level investigation reveals a dichotomy between firms that persistently suffer as a result of higher temperatures and those that improve their profitability by adapting to a hotter climate: a combination of size and age best identifies the two groups, where older, smaller-sized firms lie at one extreme and younger, larger firms at the other. According to an average climate scenario, the projected evolution of local temperatures will impact firm demography further, also exacerbating the divergent effects across warmer and colder areas over the current decade.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Cascarano & Filippo Natoli & Andrea Petrella, 2023. "Entry, exit, and market structure in a changing climate," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1418, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1418_23
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; temperatures; firm dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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