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Trade patterns, trade balances and idiosyncratic shocks

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Author Info
Claudia Canals () (La Caixa)
Xavier Gabaix () (Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics)
Josep M. Vilarrubia () (Banco de España)
David Weinstein () (Columbia University - Department of Economics)

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Abstract

International Macroeconomics has long sought an explanation for current account fluctuations that matches the data. The approaches have typically focused on better models and new macroeconomic variables. We demonstrate the limitations of this approach by showing that idiosyncratic shocks are an important cause of macroeconomic volatility even for large countries. When explaining these fluctuations, standard macroeconomic models generally assume that firms are small and that their microeconomic shocks cancel out. We show that the high degree of concentration of bilateral trade flows means that idiosyncratic shocks can have a significant impact on aggregate economic fluctuations. We theoretically develop a descomposition components. Taking the model to data on bilateral trade flows from 1970 to 1997, we find that the most comprehensive macroeconomic model can only account for at most half of the observed variance in trade account volumes of each country. Thus, this paper highlights the importance of considering disaggregated data when modeling the current account.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/informes/be/docs/dt0721e.pdf
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File Function: First version, July 2007
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Banco de España in its series Banco de España Working Papers with number 0721.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0721

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Related research
Keywords: trade balance trade concentration firms empirical

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2004. "An Anatomy of International Trade: Evidence from French Firms," 2004 Meeting Papers 802, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Razin, A., 1993. "The Dynamic-Optimizing Approach to the Current Account: Theory and Evidence," Papers 2-93, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
  3. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Andrew B. Bernard & Jonathan Eaton & J. Bradford Jensen & Samuel Kortum, 2003. "Plants and Productivity in International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1268-1290, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Xavier Gabaix, 2005. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," 2005 Meeting Papers 470, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2001. "An Account of Global Factor Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1423-1453, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2002. "Current Accounts in the Long and Short Run," NBER Working Papers 9030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. repec:rus:hseeco:122439 is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Agustín Maravall & Ana del Río, 2007. "Temporal aggregation, systematic sampling, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Banco de España Working Papers 0728, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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