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Componentes de Curto e Longo Prazo das Taxas de Juros no Brasil

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Author Info
Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos Araújo
Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho de Guillén

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Abstract

This article analyses the behavior of the Brazilian interest rate, using three measures of rate of return. The series are decomposed into their long run and short run components, as proposed by Vahid and Engle (1993). The results suggest a convergence of the rates to one long run equilibrium. We identify the dominance of the long run component in the composition of the C-Bond rate of return, whilst the short run component dominates in the case of the covered interest premium. There is, however, no clear dominance in the case of the uncovered interest premium.

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File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/port/wps55.pdf
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Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 55.

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Date of creation: Nov 2002
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Publication status: Published in Monetaria, Vol. XXVIII, no. 1 (Enero-Marzo 2005), as Tasas de cupón de cambio en Brasil: componentes de corto y largo plazos
Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:55

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Vahid, Farshid & Engle, Robert F., 1997. "Codependent cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 199-221, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Issler, Joao Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2001. "Common cycles and the importance of transitory shocks to macroeconomic aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 449-475, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Ilan Goldfajn & Eliane A. Cardoso, 1997. "Capital Flows to Brazil-The Endogeneity of Capital Controls," IMF Working Papers 97/115, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Garcia, Marcio G. P. & Barcinski, Alexandre, 1998. "Capital Flows to Brazil in the Nineties: Macroeconomic Aspects and the Effectiveness of Capital Controls," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 1), pages 319-357. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Feldstein, Martin S & Eckstein, Otto, 1970. "The Fundamental Determinants of the Interest Rate," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 52(4), pages 363-75, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Yash P. Mehra, 1994. "An error-correction model of the long-term bond rate," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 49-68. [Downloadable!]
  9. Carlos Halmiton Vasconcelos Araújo & Renato Galvão Flôres Júnior, 2001. "Análise do Financiamento Externo a Uma Pequena Economia," Working Papers Series 10, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  10. Adrian Orr & Malcolm Edey & Michael Kennedy, 1995. "The Determinants of Real Long-Term Interest Rates: 17 Country Pooled-Time-Series Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 155, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mirta Noemi Sataka Bugarin & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Jose Ricardo da Costa e Silva & Maria da Glória D. Silva Araújo, 2005. "The Effect of Adverse Oil Price Shocks on Monetary Policy and Output Using a Dynamic Small Open Economy General Equilibrium Model With Staggered Price for Brazil," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 348, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  2. André Soares Loureiro & Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, 2004. "Risk Premia for Emerging Markets Bonds: Evidence from Brazilian Government Debt, 1996-2002," Working Papers Series 85, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Loureiro, André Soares & Barbosa, Fernando de Holanda, 2003. "The Risk Premium on Brazilian Government Debt, 1996-2002," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 485, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-22.


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