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Investment, Private Information, and Social Learning: A Case Study of the Semiconductor Industry

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Author Info
Rose Cunningham
Abstract

Social learning models of investment provide an interesting explanation for sudden changes in investment behaviour. Caplin and Leahy (1994) develop a model of social learning in which agents learn about the true state of demand from the investment suspension decisions of other agents. The author tests the main predictions of Caplin and Leahy’s model using a unique database of investment projects undertaken by semiconductor plants. She finds that firms that are installing a significant new technology appear to be influenced by social learning, because they are more likely to suspend their investment project when other suspensions occur. A 1 per cent increase in the number of other suspensions increases by 3.6 per cent the probability that an average new technology plant will suspend their investment project. Suspensions by other agents also significantly affect plants that use conventional technology, but that effect is negative. The conventional technology plants are less likely to suspend their investment project when other firms suspend, which suggests that their payoffs are strategic substitutes, as in a "war-of-attrition" game.

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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 04-32.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:04-32

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Related research
Keywords: Business fluctuations and cycles;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
L63 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Microelectronics; Computers; Communications Equipment
C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Shaun K. Roache, 2006. "Domestic Investment and the Cost of Capital in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 06/152, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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