IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chieco/v27y2013icp104-120.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Social learning and parameter uncertainty in irreversible investments: Evidence from greenhouse adoption in northern China

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Honglin
  • Yu, Fan
  • Reardon, Thomas
  • Huang, Jikun
  • Rozelle, Scott

Abstract

This paper aims at an important gap in the literature, which has not modeled the effect of social learning in a real option context and examined uncertainty-reduction measures through social learning. This paper addresses the gap by modeling social learning as a way of reducing parameter uncertainty, thus facilitating technology adoption and shortening the waiting time in irreversible investments. We use household-level data on intermediate-technology greenhouse adoption in northern China to test the predictions in both a linear probability model and a duration analysis. Our empirical findings support the hypothesis. We also find that market volatility and insecure land property rights discourage adoption.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Honglin & Yu, Fan & Reardon, Thomas & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott, 2013. "Social learning and parameter uncertainty in irreversible investments: Evidence from greenhouse adoption in northern China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 104-120.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:104-120
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2013.09.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043951X13000783
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chieco.2013.09.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timothy Conley & Udry Christopher, 2001. "Social Learning Through Networks: The Adoption of New Agricultural Technologies in Ghana," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 668-673.
    2. Reardon, Thomas, 1997. "Using evidence of household income diversification to inform study of the rural nonfarm labor market in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 735-747, May.
    3. Timothy G. Conley & Christopher R. Udry, 2010. "Learning about a New Technology: Pineapple in Ghana," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 35-69, March.
    4. Lixin Huang & Hong Liu, 2007. "Rational Inattention and Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1999-2040, August.
    5. Gennotte, Gerard, 1986. "Optimal Portfolio Choice under Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 733-746, July.
    6. Jean-Paul Chavas, 1993. "On Sustainability and the Economics of Survival," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(1), pages 72-83.
    7. Foster, Andrew D & Rosenzweig, Mark R, 1995. "Learning by Doing and Learning from Others: Human Capital and Technical Change in Agriculture," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(6), pages 1176-1209, December.
    8. Michel Demers, 1991. "Investment under Uncertainty, Irreversibility and the Arrival of Information Over Time," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 333-350.
    9. Sunding, David & Zilberman, David, 2001. "The agricultural innovation process: Research and technology adoption in a changing agricultural sector," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 207-261, Elsevier.
    10. Townsend, Robert M, 1994. "Risk and Insurance in Village India," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 539-591, May.
    11. Oriana Bandiera & Imran Rasul, 2006. "Social Networks and Technology Adoption in Northern Mozambique," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(514), pages 869-902, October.
    12. Besley, T. & Case, A., 1994. "Diffusion as a Learning Process: Evidence from HYV Cotton," Papers 174, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
    13. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard E & Zilberman, David, 1985. "Adoption of Agricultural Innovations in Developing Countries: A Survey," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(2), pages 255-298, January.
    14. Huntley Schaller & Fanny Demers & Michel Demers, 1993. "Investments Under Uncertainty and Irreversibility," Carleton Economic Papers 93-10, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Sep 1990.
    15. Zilberman, David & Sunding, David L. & Howitt, Richard E. & Dinar, Ariel & MacDougall, Neal A., 1994. "Water for California Agriculture: Lessons from the Drought and New Water Market Reform," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 9(4), pages 1-4.
    16. Yihong Xia, 2001. "Learning about Predictability: The Effects of Parameter Uncertainty on Dynamic Asset Allocation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 205-246, February.
    17. Fafchamps, Marcel & Lund, Susan, 2003. "Risk-sharing networks in rural Philippines," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 261-287, August.
    18. Zeira, Joseph, 1987. "Investment as a Process of Search," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 204-210, February.
    19. M. J. Brennan, 1998. "The Role of Learning in Dynamic Portfolio Decisions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 1(3), pages 295-306.
    20. repec:pri:rpdevs:besley_case_diffusion is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Guiseppe Bertola & Ricardo J. Caballero, 1994. "Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(2), pages 223-246.
    22. Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 1993. "Sectoral Shocks, Learning, and Aggregate Fluctuations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(4), pages 777-794.
    23. repec:pri:rpdevs:besley_case_diffusion.pdf is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Kevin A. Hassett & Gilbert E. Metcalf, 1992. "Energy Tax Credits and Residential Conservation Investment," NBER Working Papers 4020, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Charles F. Manski, 1993. "Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 531-542.
    26. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    27. Olmstead, Alan L & Rhode, Paul, 1993. "Induced Innovation in American Agriculture: A Reconsideration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 100-118, February.
    28. Yan Shen & Yang Yao, 2006. "Grassroots Democracy and Income Distribution : Evidence from Village Elections in China," Governance Working Papers 21901, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    29. Alex Winter-Nelson & Koffi Amegbeto, 1998. "Option Values to Conservation and Agricultural Price Policy: Application to Terrace Construction in Kenya," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(2), pages 409-418.
    30. van den Goorbergh, R.W.J. & Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2003. "Risk Aversion, Price Uncertainty and Irreversible Investments," Other publications TiSEM 5232010b-ce04-47bf-a11f-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    31. Feder, Gershon, 1980. "Farm Size, Risk Aversion and the Adoption of New Technology under Uncertainty," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 263-283, July.
    32. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    33. Yamauchi, Futoshi, 2007. "Social learning, neighborhood effects, and investment in human capital: Evidence from Green-Revolution India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 37-62, May.
    34. Munshi, Kaivan, 2004. "Social learning in a heterogeneous population: technology diffusion in the Indian Green Revolution," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 185-213, February.
    35. Carletto, Calogero & Kirk, Angeli & Winters, Paul C. & Davis, Benjamin, 2010. "Globalization and Smallholders: The Adoption, Diffusion, and Welfare Impact of Non-Traditional Export Crops in Guatemala," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 814-827, June.
    36. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1984. "Option Pricing When the Underlying Asset Earns a Below-Equilibrium Rate of Return: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 261-265, March.
    37. Jovanovic, Boyan & Nyarko, Yaw, 1994. "The Bayesian Foundations of Learning by Doing," Working Papers 94-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hisatoshi Hoken & Qun Su, 2018. "Measuring the effect of agricultural cooperatives on household income: Case study of a rice‐producing cooperative in China," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 831-846, October.
    2. Elisabeth SADOULET, 2016. "Review of Theories of Learning for Adopting," Working Papers P163, FERDI.
    3. Jian Li & Ping Qing & Wuyang Hu & Minglai Li, 2022. "Contract farming, community effect, and farmer valuation of biofortified crop varieties in China: The case of high‐zinc wheat," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 1035-1055, May.
    4. Hongyu Wang & Xiaolei Wang & Apurbo Sarkar & Fuhong Zhang, 2021. "How Capital Endowment and Ecological Cognition Affect Environment-Friendly Technology Adoption: A Case of Apple Farmers of Shandong Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-16, July.
    5. Hoken, Hisatoshi & Su, Qun, 2015. "Measuring the effect of agricultural cooperatives on household income using PSM-DID : a case study of a rice-producing cooperative in China," IDE Discussion Papers 539, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    6. Yongfeng Tan & Apurbo Sarkar & Airin Rahman & Lu Qian & Waqar Hussain Memon & Zharkyn Magzhan, 2021. "Does External Shock Influence Farmer’s Adoption of Modern Irrigation Technology?—A Case of Gansu Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-16, August.
    7. Wu, Haixia & Li, Jianping & Ge, Yan, 2022. "Ambiguity preference, social learning and adoption of soil testing and formula fertilization technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    8. Fanglei Zhong & Lili Li & Aijun Guo & Xiaoyu Song & Qingping Cheng & Yongnian Zhang & Xiaojiang Ding, 2019. "Quantifying the Influence Path of Water Conservation Awareness on Water-Saving Irrigation Behavior Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior and Structural Equation Modeling: A Case Study from Northwest," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-16, September.
    9. Jing Li, 2019. "Land tenure and agricultural investments in China: a meta-regression analysis," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(2), pages 329-347, September.
    10. Gbêtondji Melaine Armel Nonvide, 2021. "Adoption of agricultural technologies among rice farmers in Benin," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 2372-2390, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. B Kelsey Jack, "undated". "Market Inefficiencies and the Adoption of Agricultural Technologies in Developing Countries," CID Working Papers 50, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    2. Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O. & Winter-Nelson, Alex, 2009. "Poverty status and the impact of social networks on smallholder technology adoption in rural Ethiopia," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49357, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Magnan, Nicholas & Spielman, David J. & Lybbert, Travis J. & Gulati, Kajal, 2015. "Leveling with friends: Social networks and Indian farmers' demand for a technology with heterogeneous benefits," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 223-251.
    4. Khushbu Mishra & Abdoul G. Sam & Gracious M. Diiro & Mario J. Miranda, 2020. "Gender and the dynamics of technology adoption: Empirical evidence from a household‐level panel data," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(6), pages 857-870, November.
    5. Christopher B. Busch & Colin Vance, 2011. "The Diffusion of Cattle Ranching and Deforestation: Prospects for a Hollow Frontier in Mexico’s Yucatán," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 87(4), pages 682-698.
    6. Timothy G. Conley & Christopher R. Udry, 2010. "Learning about a New Technology: Pineapple in Ghana," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 35-69, March.
    7. Margherita Comola & Carla Inguaggiato & Mariapia Mendola, 2021. "Learning about Farming: Innovation and Social Networks in a Resettled Community in Brazil," Development Working Papers 468, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    8. Huanxiu Guo & Sébastien Marchand, 2013. "Is participatory social learning a performance driver for Chinese smallholder farmers?," Working Papers halshs-00878886, HAL.
    9. Sommarat Chantarat & Christopher Barrett, 2012. "Social network capital, economic mobility and poverty traps," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 10(3), pages 299-342, September.
    10. Gine, Xavier & Klonner, Stefan, 2005. "Credit constraints as a barrier to technology adoption by the poor : lessons from South Indian small-scale fishery," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3665, The World Bank.
    11. Kazushi Takahashi & Rie Muraoka & Keijiro Otsuka, 2020. "Technology adoption, impact, and extension in developing countries’ agriculture: A review of the recent literature," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(1), pages 31-45, January.
    12. Tisorn Songsermsawas & Kathy Baylis & Ashwini Chhatre & Hope Michelson, 2014. "Can Peers Improve Agricultural Productivity?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4958, CESifo.
    13. Kondylis, Florence & Mueller, Valerie, 2012. "Seeing is Believing? Evidence from a Demonstration Plot Experiment in Mozambique:," MSSP working papers 1, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    14. Mekonnen, Daniel Ayalew & Gerber, Nicolas & Matz, Julia Anna, 2018. "Gendered Social Networks, Agricultural Innovations, and Farm Productivity in Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 321-335.
    15. Nicholas Magnan & David J Spielman & Travis J. Lybbert & Kajal Gulati, 2013. "Leveling with Friends: Social Networks and Indian Farmers’ Demand for Agricultural Custom Hire Services," Working Papers id:5591, eSocialSciences.
    16. Mekonnen Daniel Ayalew & Gerber Nicolas & Matz Julia Anna, 2016. "Working Paper 235 - Social Networks, Agricultural Innovations, and Farm Productivity in Ethiopia," Working Paper Series 2330, African Development Bank.
    17. Ma, Xingliang & Shi, Guanming, 2011. "A Dynamic Adoption Model with Bayesian Learning: Application to the U.S. Soybean Market," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 104577, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Tavneet Suri, 2006. "Selection and Comparative Advantage in Technology Adoption," Working Papers 944, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    19. Che, Yuyuan & Feng, Hongli & Hennessy, David, 2021. "Assessing Peer Effects and Subsidy Impacts in Technology Adoption: Application to Grazing Management Choices with Farm Survey Data," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315123, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social learning; Technology adoption; Irreversible investment; Greenhouse; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:104-120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/chieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.