IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocawp/03-31.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Simple Test of Simple Rules: Can They Improve How Monetary Policy is Implemented with Inflation Targets?

Author

Listed:
  • Nicholas Rowe
  • David Tulk

Abstract

The authors evaluate whether an assortment of simple rules could improve how the Bank of Canada implements its inflation-targeting monetary policy. They focus on measuring the correlation between the deviations of inflation from the target and the lagged deviations of rule recommendations from the actual policy interest rate. This empirical procedure evaluates the rules in a model-free environment and uses historical data over the Bank’s inflation-targeting regime. The authors find that the Bank would not improve its policy of targeting inflation by paying more attention to the advice provided by these rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Rowe & David Tulk, 2003. "A Simple Test of Simple Rules: Can They Improve How Monetary Policy is Implemented with Inflation Targets?," Staff Working Papers 03-31, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:03-31
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/wp03-31.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maral Kichian, 2001. "On the Nature and the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve," Staff Working Papers 01-4, Bank of Canada.
    2. Denise Côté & John Kuszczak & Jean-Paul Lam & Ying Liu & Pierre St-Amant, 2004. "The performance and robustness of simple monetary policy rules in models of the Canadian economy," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 978-998, November.
    3. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Stephen Murchison, "undated". "NAOMI A New Quarterly Forecasting Model Part II: A Guide to Canadian NAOMI," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 2001-25, Department of Finance Canada.
    5. Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton & Ann-Charlotte Eliasson, 1999. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 537-577, November.
    6. Andrew T.. Levin & Volker Wieland & John Williams, 1999. "Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 263-318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, July.
    8. Nicholas Rowe, 2002. "How to Improve Inflation Targeting at the Bank of Canada," Staff Working Papers 02-23, Bank of Canada.
    9. Tiff Macklem, 2002. "Information and Analysis for Monetary Policy: Coming to a Decision," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2002(Summer), pages 11-18.
    10. Jamie Armour & Ben Fung & Dinah Maclean, 2002. "Taylor Rules in the Quarterly Projection Model," Staff Working Papers 02-1, Bank of Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrés Felipe Giraldo Palomino, 2008. "Aversión a la inflación y regla de Taylor en Colombia 1994-2005," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, December.
    2. Onanuga, Abayomi & Oshinloye, Michael & Onanuga, Olaronke, 2015. "Monetary Policy-Making in Nigeria: Does evidence support augmented Taylor Rule?," MPRA Paper 83329, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Denise Côté & John Kuszczak & Jean‐Paul Lam & Ying Liu & Pierre St‐Amant, 2004. "The performance and robustness of simple monetary policy rules in models of the Canadian economy," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(4), pages 978-998, November.
    2. Cote, Denise & Kuszczak, John & Lam, Jean-Paul & Liu, Ying & St-Amant, Pierre, 2006. "A comparison of twelve macroeconomic models of the Canadian economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 523-562, July.
    3. Gabriel Srour, 2003. "Some Notes on Monetary Policy Rules with Uncertainty," Staff Working Papers 03-16, Bank of Canada.
    4. Alexei Onatski & Noah Williams, 2003. "Modeling Model Uncertainty," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1087-1122, September.
    5. Wollmershauser, Timo, 2006. "Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-519, September.
    6. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Helmi, Mohamad Husam & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Menla Ali, Faek & Akdeniz, Coşkun, 2018. "Monetary policy rules in emerging countries: Is there an augmented nonlinear taylor rule?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 306-319.
    7. Stan Žaković & Volker Wieland & Berc Rustem, 2007. "Stochastic Optimization and Worst-Case Analysis in Monetary Policy Design," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 30(4), pages 329-347, November.
    8. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 151-175, April.
    9. Günter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2002. "Inflation Dynamics and International Linkages: A Model of the United States, the Euro Area and Japan," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 240, Society for Computational Economics.
    10. Volker Wieland, "undated". "Monetary Policy and Uncertainty about the Natural Unemployment Rate," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 11, Society for Computational Economics.
    11. Ms. Keiko Honjo & Mr. Benjamin L Hunt, 2006. "Stabilizing Inflation in Iceland," IMF Working Papers 2006/262, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Katerina Smidkova, 2003. "Targeting Inflation under Uncertainty: Policy Makers’ Perspective," Macroeconomics 0304003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Keith Kuester & Volker Wieland, 2010. "Insurance Policies for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(4), pages 872-912, June.
    14. Kirdan Lees, 2004. "Uncertainty and the open economy: a view through two different lenses," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 235, Econometric Society.
    15. Rizki E. Wimanda & Paul M. Turner & Maximilian J.B. Hall, 2012. "Monetary policy rules for Indonesia: which type is the most efficient?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(4), pages 469-484, August.
    16. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & John Driffill, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy with a regime-switching exchange rate in a forward-looking model," GEMF Working Papers 2007-09, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    17. Marc Giannoni, 2006. "Robust Optimal Policy in a Forward-Looking Model with Parameter and Shock Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 11942, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Jamie Armour & Ben Fung & Dinah Maclean, 2002. "Taylor Rules in the Quarterly Projection Model," Staff Working Papers 02-1, Bank of Canada.
    19. Rizki E. Wimanda & Paul M. Turner & Maximilian J.B. Hall, 2012. "Monetary policy rules for Indonesia: which type is the most efficient?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 469-484, December.
    20. Siok Kun, Sek, 2009. "The impacts of economic structures on the performance of simple policy rules in a small open economy," MPRA Paper 25065, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:03-31. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.