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The Price Impact of Economic News, Private Information and Trading Intensity

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  • Paola Paiardini

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

Abstract

In this paper we use three years high-frequency data to investigate the role played by public and private information in the process of price formation in two secondary government bond markets. As public information we examine the impact of regularly scheduled macroeconomic news announcements. We identify those announcements with the greatest impact on these markets. As private information we estimate the price impact of order flow. In fact, according to the microstructure models, private information in this context is related to the subjective evaluation of information and order flow can reflect difference of opinions among market participants. Thus, market participant may infer information about the subjective beliefs of other market participants looking at the aggregate order flow. We then use a vector autoregressive model for prices and trades to empirically test the role played by intraday trading intensity and by the waiting time between consecutive transactions in the process of price formations.

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File URL: http://www.bbk.ac.uk/ems/research/wp/2010/PDFs/BWPEF1011.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics in its series Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance with number 1011.

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Date of creation: Jun 2010
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Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:1011

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  1. Takatoshi Ito & Richard K. Lyons & Michael T. Melvin, 1998. "Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(3), pages 1111-1130, 06.
  2. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Real-Time Price Discovery in Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-028, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 28 Jun 2004.
  3. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 523-543, December.
  4. Dufour, Alfonso & Engle, Robert F, 1999. "Time and the Price Impact of a Trade," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt62c0h04j, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  5. Cheung, Yiu Chung & de Jong, Frank & Rindi, Barbara, 2005. "Trading European sovereign bonds: the microstructure of the MTS trading platforms," Working Paper Series 0432, European Central Bank.
  6. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. " Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
  7. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "What moves the bond market?," Research Paper 9706, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  8. Evans, Martin D. & Lyons, Richard K., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance, Working Paper Series qt0dh1c16w, Research Program in Finance, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  9. Alfonso Dufour & Frank Skinner, 2004. "MTS Time Series: Market and Data Description for the European Bond and Repo Database," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2004-06, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  10. Dunne, Peter & Hau, Harald & Moore, Michael, 2008. "A Tale of Two Platforms: Dealer Intermediation in the European Sovereign Bond Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6969, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. " How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-91, September.
  12. T. Clifton Green, 2004. "Economic News and the Impact of Trading on Bond Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1201-1234, 06.
  13. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June.
  14. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1901-1915, October.
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