IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fednsr/624.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Price and size discovery in financial markets: evidence from the U.S. Treasury securities market

Author

Abstract

We study the workup protocol, an important size discovery mechanism in the U.S. Treasury securities market. We find that shocks in workup order flow explain 6-8 percent of the variation of returns on benchmark notes and, across maturities, contribute 10 percent to the variation of the yield curve level factor. Information related to proprietary client order flow is more likely to show up in workup trades, whereas information derived from public announcements is more likely to come through pre-workup (or “lit”) trades. Our findings highlight how the nature of information affects the trade-off between speed and execution price as informed traders choose between the lit and workup channels.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael J. Fleming & Giang Nguyen, 2013. "Price and size discovery in financial markets: evidence from the U.S. Treasury securities market," Staff Reports 624, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:624
    Note: Revised August 2018. Previous title: “Order Flow Segmentation and the Role of Dark Trading in the Price Discovery of U.S. Treasury Securities.” For a published version of this report, see Michael J. Fleming and Giang Nguyen, “Price and Size Discovery in Financial Markets: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Securities Market,” Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Vol. 9, No. 2 (December 2019): 256–295.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr624.html
    File Function: Summary
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr624.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr624_appendix.pdf?la=en
    File Function: Appendix
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alfonso Dufour & Robert F. Engle, 2000. "Time and the Price Impact of a Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2467-2498, December.
    2. Sabrina Buti & Barbara Rindi & Ingrid M. Werner, 2011. "Dark Pool Trading Strategies," Working Papers 421, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    3. Michael J. Barclay & Terrence Hendershott & Kenneth Kotz, 2006. "Automation versus Intermediation: Evidence from Treasuries Going Off the Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2395-2414, October.
    4. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "What moves the bond market?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Dec), pages 31-50.
    5. Buti, Sabrina & Rindi, Barbara & Werner, Ingrid M., 2010. "Diving into Dark Pools," Working Paper Series 2010-10, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    6. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2009. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence from the Euro-Area Bond Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 925-957, March.
    7. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. "The Summary Informativeness of Stock Trades: An Econometric Analysis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(3), pages 571-595.
    8. Haoxiang Zhu, 2014. "Do Dark Pools Harm Price Discovery?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 747-789.
    9. Comerton-Forde, Carole & Putniņš, Tālis J., 2015. "Dark trading and price discovery," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 70-92.
    10. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(4), pages 523-543, December.
    11. Asani Sarkar & Robert A. Schwartz, 2009. "Market Sidedness: Insights into Motives for Trade Initiation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(1), pages 375-423, February.
    12. Hans Degryse & Frank de Jong & Vincent van Kervel, 2015. "The Impact of Dark Trading and Visible Fragmentation on Market Quality," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(4), pages 1587-1622.
    13. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. "Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
    14. Paolo Pasquariello & Clara Vega, 2007. "Informed and Strategic Order Flow in the Bond Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1975-2019, November.
    15. Sun, Zhuowei & Dunne, Peter G. & Li, Youwei, 2015. "Price discovery in the dual-platform US Treasury market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 95-110.
    16. Boni, Leslie & Leach, Chris, 2004. "Expandable limit order markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 145-185, February.
    17. Parlour, Christine A, 1998. "Price Dynamics in Limit Order Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 789-816.
    18. T. Clifton Green, 2004. "Economic News and the Impact of Trading on Bond Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1201-1234, June.
    19. Mardi Dungey & Olan Henry & Michael Mckenzie, 2013. "Modeling trade duration in U.S. Treasury markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 1431-1442, September.
    20. Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2004. "Price Discovery in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Impact of Orderflow and Liquidity on the Yield Curve," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(6), pages 2623-2654, December.
    21. Alex Boulatov & Thomas J. George, 2013. "Hidden and Displayed Liquidity in Securities Markets with Informed Liquidity Providers," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(8), pages 2096-2137.
    22. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1901-1915, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adrian, Tobias & Capponi, Agostino & Fleming, Michael & Vogt, Erik & Zhang, Hongzhong, 2020. "Intraday market making with overnight inventory costs," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    2. Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Benjamin Junge & Anders B. Trolle, 2020. "Market Structure and Transaction Costs of Index CDSs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(5), pages 2719-2763, October.
    3. Han, Seung-Oh & Huh, Sahn-Wook & Park, Jeayoung, 2023. "Detecting jumps amidst prevalent zero returns: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury securities," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 276-307.
    4. He, William Peng & Lepone, Andrew, 2014. "Determinants of liquidity and execution probability in exchange operated dark pool: Evidence from the Australian Securities Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-16.
    5. Corey Garriott & Adrian Walton, 2016. "Retail Order Flow Segmentation," Staff Working Papers 16-20, Bank of Canada.
    6. Papavassiliou, Vassilios G. & Kinateder, Harald, 2021. "Information shares and market quality before and during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. Indriawan, Ivan & Jiao, Feng & Tse, Yiuman, 2021. "The FOMC announcement returns on long-term US and German bond futures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fleming, Michael J. & Mizrach, Bruce & Nguyen, Giang, 2018. "The microstructure of a U.S. Treasury ECN: The BrokerTec platform," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 2-22.
    2. He, Yan & Lin, Hai & Wang, Junbo & Wu, Chunchi, 2009. "Price discovery in the round-the-clock U.S. Treasury market," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 464-490, July.
    3. Paola Paiardini, 2010. "The Price Impact of Economic News, Private Information and Trading Intensity," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1011, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    4. Dungey, Mardi & McKenzie, Michael & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2009. "Empirical evidence on jumps in the term structure of the US Treasury Market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 430-445, June.
    5. Mizrach, Bruce & Neely, Christopher J., 2008. "Information shares in the US Treasury market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1221-1233, July.
    6. Jiang, George J. & Lo, Ingrid, 2014. "Private information flow and price discovery in the U.S. treasury market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 118-133.
    7. Nguyen, Giang & Engle, Robert & Fleming, Michael & Ghysels, Eric, 2020. "Liquidity and volatility in the U.S. Treasury market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 217(2), pages 207-229.
    8. Kenneth Khang & Tao-Hsien Dolly King, 2010. "Short horizon liquidity and trading activity in the US Treasury market: do inventory holding costs matter?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(14), pages 1085-1098.
    9. Dungey, Mardi & Henry, Olan & McKenzie, Michael, 2010. "From Trade-to-Trade in US Treasuries," Working Papers 10446, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 01 May 2010.
    10. Nowak, Sylwia & Anderson, Heather M., 2014. "How does public information affect the frequency of trading in airline stocks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 26-38.
    11. Lin, Hai & Lo, Ingrid & Qiao, Rui, 2021. "Macroeconomic news announcements and market efficiency: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Menkveld, Albert J. & Yueshen, Bart Zhou & Zhu, Haoxiang, 2017. "Shades of darkness: A pecking order of trading venues," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 503-534.
    13. Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni, 2010. "Do Bonds Span Volatility Risk in the U.S. Treasury Market? A Specification Test for Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(2), pages 603-653, April.
    14. Fricke, Christoph & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Does the "Bund" dominate price discovery in Euro bond futures? Examining information shares," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1057-1072, May.
    15. Michael Brolley, 2020. "Price Improvement and Execution Risk in Lit and Dark Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(2), pages 863-886, February.
    16. Czech, Robert & Huang, Shiyang & Lou, Dong & Wang, Tianyu, 2021. "Informed trading in government bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1253-1274.
    17. Opschoor, Anne & Taylor, Nick & van der Wel, Michel & van Dijk, Dick, 2014. "Order flow and volatility: An empirical investigation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 185-201.
    18. Kasing Man & Junbo Wang & Chunchi Wu, 2013. "Price Discovery in the U.S. Treasury Market: Automation vs. Intermediation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(3), pages 695-714, September.
    19. George Jiang & Ingrid Lo & Giorgio Valente, 2014. "High-Frequency Trading around Macroeconomic News Announcements: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Staff Working Papers 14-56, Bank of Canada.
    20. Albuquerque, Rui & Vega, Clara, 2006. "Asymmetric Information in the Stock Market: Economic News and Co-movement," CEPR Discussion Papers 5598, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    liquidity; fixed-income markets; price impact; dark pool; information share;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:624. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gabriella Bucciarelli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbnyus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.