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Preemptive Investment under Uncertainty

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  • Jan-Henrik Steg

Abstract

This paper provides a general characterization of subgame perfect equilibria for strategic timing problems, where two firms have the (real) option to make an irreversible investment. Profit streams are uncertain and depend on the market structure. The analysis is based directly on the inherent economic structure of the model. In particular, the determination of equilibria with preemptive investment is reduced to solving a single class of constrained optimal stopping problems. The general results are applied to typical state-space models, completing commonly insufficient equilibrium arguments, showing when uncertainty leads to qualitatively different behavior, and establishing additional equilibria that are Pareto improvements.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan-Henrik Steg, 2015. "Preemptive Investment under Uncertainty," Papers 1511.03863, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1511.03863
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thijssen, Jacco J.J. & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M., 2012. "Symmetric equilibrium strategies in game theoretic real option models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 219-225.
    2. Helen Weeds, 2002. "Strategic Delay in a Real Options Model of R&D Competition," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(3), pages 729-747.
    3. Boyarchenko, Svetlana & Levendorskiĭ, Sergei, 2014. "Preemption games under Lévy uncertainty," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 354-380.
    4. Azevedo, Alcino & Paxson, Dean, 2014. "Developing real option game models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 909-920.
    5. Mason, Robin & Weeds, Helen, 2010. "Investment, uncertainty and pre-emption," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 278-287, May.
    6. Jan-Henrik Steg & Jacco Thijssen, 2015. "Quick or Persistent? Strategic Investment Demanding Versatility," Papers 1506.04698, arXiv.org.
    7. Laraki, Rida & Solan, Eilon & Vieille, Nicolas, 2005. "Continuous-time games of timing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 206-238, February.
    8. Jennifer F. Reinganum, 1981. "On the Diffusion of New Technology: A Game Theoretic Approach," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 48(3), pages 395-405.
    9. Riedel, Frank & Steg, Jan-Henrik, 2017. "Subgame-perfect equilibria in stochastic timing games," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 36-50.
    10. Drew Fudenberg & Jean Tirole, 1985. "Preemption and Rent Equalization in the Adoption of New Technology," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 52(3), pages 383-401.
    11. Simon, Leo K & Stinchcombe, Maxwell B, 1989. "Extensive Form Games in Continuous Time: Pure Strategies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1171-1214, September.
    12. Alós-Ferrer, Carlos & Ritzberger, Klaus, 2008. "Trees and extensive forms," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 216-250, November.
    13. Grzegorz Pawlina & Peter M. Kort, 2006. "Real Options in an Asymmetric Duopoly: Who Benefits from Your Competitive Disadvantage?," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-35, March.
    14. Kenneth Hendricks & Charles Wilson, 1992. "Equilibrium in Preemption Games with Complete Information," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Mukul Majumdar (ed.), Equilibrium and Dynamics, chapter 6, pages 123-147, Palgrave Macmillan.
    15. Touzi, N. & Vieille, N., 1999. "Continuous-Time Dynkin Games with Mixed Strategies," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 1999.112, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    16. Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. "The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-1679, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ebina, Takeshi & Kumakura, Yuya & Nishide, Katsumasa, 2022. "Hostile takeovers or friendly mergers? Real options analysis," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. Herbert Dawid & Serhat Gezer, 2022. "Markov Perfect Equilibria in Multi-Mode Differential Games with Endogenous Timing of Mode Transitions," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 363-393, June.
    3. Smirnov, Vladimir & Wait, Andrew, 2021. "Preemption with a second-mover advantage," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 294-309.
    4. Riedel, Frank & Steg, Jan-Henrik, 2017. "Subgame-perfect equilibria in stochastic timing games," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 36-50.
    5. Steg, Jan-Henrik, 2022. "On identifying subgame-perfect equilibrium outcomes for timing games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 74-78.
    6. Steg, Jan-Henrik & Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2023. "Strategic investment with positive externalities," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 1-21.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L12 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Monopoly; Monopolization Strategies
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets

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