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On the Exact Solution of the Multi-Period Portfolio Choice Problem for an Exponential Utility under Return Predictability

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  • Taras Bodnar
  • Nestor Parolya
  • Wolfgang Schmid

Abstract

In this paper we derive the exact solution of the multi-period portfolio choice problem for an exponential utility function under return predictability. It is assumed that the asset returns depend on predictable variables and that the joint random process of the asset returns and the predictable variables follow a vector autoregressive process. We prove that the optimal portfolio weights depend on the covariance matrices of the next two periods and the conditional mean vector of the next period. The case without predictable variables and the case of independent asset returns are partial cases of our solution. Furthermore, we provide an empirical study where the cumulative empirical distribution function of the investor's wealth is calculated using the exact solution. It is compared with the investment strategy obtained under the additional assumption that the asset returns are independently distributed.

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File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1207.1037
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Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1207.1037.

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Date of creation: Jul 2012
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Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1207.1037

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Web page: http://arxiv.org/

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  1. Duan Li & Wan-Lung Ng, 2000. "Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Selection: Multiperiod Mean-Variance Formulation," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 387-406.
  2. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-57, August.
  3. Campbell, John Y & Chan, Yeung Lewis & Viceira, Luis M, 2001. "A Multivariate Model of Strategic Asset Allocation," CEPR Discussion Papers 3070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Campbell, John Y, 1996. "Understanding Risk and Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 298-345, April.
  5. Samuelson, Paul A, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 239-46, August.
  6. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-79, March.
  7. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J, 1974. "On the Optimality of Some Multiperiod Portfolio Selection Criteria," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(2), pages 231-43, April.
  8. Suleyman Basak & Georgy Chabakauri, 2010. "Dynamic Mean-Variance Asset Allocation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(8), pages 2970-3016, August.
  9. Leippold, Markus & Trojani, Fabio & Vanini, Paolo, 2004. "A geometric approach to multiperiod mean variance optimization of assets and liabilities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1079-1113, March.
  10. Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, 02.
  11. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, 03.
  12. Soyer, Refik & Tanyeri, Kadir, 2006. "Bayesian portfolio selection with multi-variate random variance models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 171(3), pages 977-990, June.
  13. Michael W. Brandt & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2006. "Dynamic Portfolio Selection by Augmentingthe Asset Space," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2187-2217, October.
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