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Dynamic portfolio choice with return predictability and transaction costs

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  • Ma, Guiyuan
  • Siu, Chi Chung
  • Zhu, Song-Ping

Abstract

We derive a closed-form solution to a continuous-time optimal portfolio selection problem with return predictability and transaction costs. Specifically, we assume that asset returns are predicted by stochastic signals, and that transaction costs are of quadratic form. The agent chooses a trading strategy to maximize the expected exponential utility of his terminal wealth. Our feedback trading strategy indicates that the agent should trade gradually toward a dynamic aim portfolio, which is a weighted sum of the expected future Merton portfolios. The agent’s aim portfolio converges to the Merton portfolio as time approaches the terminal date. Our analysis offers new insights to the existing literature. First, our optimal trading strategy is affected by the volatility of return-predicting factors, while such an effect is absent in Gârleanu and Pedersen (2016). Secondly, the agent invests more into the assets with more persistent signals and with less transaction costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Ma, Guiyuan & Siu, Chi Chung & Zhu, Song-Ping, 2019. "Dynamic portfolio choice with return predictability and transaction costs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(3), pages 976-988.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:278:y:2019:i:3:p:976-988
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.05.009
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    3. Ma, Guiyuan & Siu, Chi Chung & Zhu, Song-Ping, 2020. "Optimal investment and consumption with return predictability and execution costs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 408-419.
    4. Ma, Guiyuan & Siu, Chi Chung & Zhu, Song-Ping, 2022. "Portfolio choice with return predictability and small trading frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    5. Vera Ivanyuk, 2022. "Proposed Model of a Dynamic Investment Portfolio with an Adaptive Strategy," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(23), pages 1-19, November.
    6. Ben-Zhang Yang & Xin-Jiang He & Song-Ping Zhu, 2020. "Continuous time mean-variance-utility portfolio problem and its equilibrium strategy," Papers 2005.06782, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    7. Guiyuan Ma & Song-Ping Zhu & Boda Kang, 2020. "A Numerical Solution of Optimal Portfolio Selection Problem with General Utility Functions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 957-981, March.
    8. N'Golo Kone, 2020. "A Multi-Period Portfolio Selection in a Large Financial Market," Working Paper 1439, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    9. Kirkby, J. Lars & Mitra, Sovan & Nguyen, Duy, 2020. "An analysis of dollar cost averaging and market timing investment strategies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 286(3), pages 1168-1186.
    10. Mengting Li & Qifa Xu & Cuixia Jiang & Qinna Zhao, 2023. "The role of tail network topological characteristic in portfolio selection: A TNA‐PMC model," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 37-57, March.
    11. Yao, Haixiang & Li, Danping & Wu, Huiling, 2022. "Dynamic trading with uncertain exit time and transaction costs in a general Markov market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    12. Xu, Qifa & Li, Mengting & Jiang, Cuixia, 2021. "Network-augmented time-varying parametric portfolio selection: Evidence from the Chinese stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    13. Alain Bensoussan & Guiyuan Ma & Chi Chung Siu & Sheung Chi Phillip Yam, 2022. "Dynamic mean–variance problem with frictions," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 267-300, April.
    14. Vera Ivanyuk, 2021. "Formulating the Concept of an Investment Strategy Adaptable to Changes in the Market Situation," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-19, June.
    15. Keisuke Kizaki & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2023. "A multi-agent incomplete equilibrium model and its applications to reinsurance pricing and life-cycle investment (Forthcoming in "Insurance: Mathematics and Economics")," CARF F-Series CARF-F-576, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    16. Masamitsu Ohnishi & Makoto Shimoshimizu, 2022. "Optimal Pair–Trade Execution with Generalized Cross–Impact," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(2), pages 253-289, June.

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