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Dynamic Trading with Predictable Returns and Transaction Costs

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  • Garleanu, Nicolae Bogdan
  • Pedersen, Lasse Heje

Abstract

This paper derives in closed form the optimal dynamic portfolio policy when trading is costly and security returns are predictable by signals with different mean-reversion speeds. The optimal updated portfolio is a linear combination of the existing portfolio, the optimal portfolio absent trading costs, and the optimal portfolio based on future expected returns and transaction costs. Predictors with slower mean reversion (alpha decay) get more weight since they lead to a favorable positioning both now and in the future. We implement the optimal policy for commodity futures and show that the resulting portfolio has superior returns net of trading costs relative to more naive benchmarks. Finally, we derive natural equilibrium implications, including that demand shocks with faster mean reversion command a higher return premium.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7392.

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Date of creation: Aug 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7392

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Keywords: dynamic trading; portfolio choice; predictability; transaction costs;

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References

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  1. Markus K Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pederson, 2003. "Predatory Trading," FMG Discussion Papers dp441, Financial Markets Group.
  2. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah J, 1996. "Evaluating the Effects of Incomplete Markets on Risk Sharing and Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 443-87, June.
  3. Hong Liu, 2004. "Optimal Consumption and Investment with Transaction Costs and Multiple Risky Assets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(1), pages 289-338, 02.
  4. Andrew W. Lo & Harry Mamaysky & Jiang Wang, 2001. "Asset Prices and Trading Volume Under Fixed Transactions Costs," NBER Working Papers 8311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Bruce Ian Carlin & Miguel Sousa Lobo & S. Viswanathan, 2007. "Episodic Liquidity Crises: Cooperative and Predatory Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2235-2274, October.
  6. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2004. "Asset Pricing with Liquidity Risk," NBER Working Papers 10814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Lynch, Anthony W., 1999. "Transaction costs and predictability: some utility cost calculations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 47-78, April.
  8. Anthony W. Lynch & Pierluigi Balduzzi, 2000. "Predictability and Transaction Costs: The Impact on Rebalancing Rules and Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2285-2309, October.
  9. Ricardo Lagos & Guillaume Rocheteau, 2006. "Search in asset markets," Staff Report 375, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  10. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean-Luc Vila, 1999. "Equilibrium interest rate and liquidity premium with transaction costs," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 453, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  11. Longstaff, Francis A, 2001. "Optimal Portfolio Choice and the Valuation of Illiquid Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 407-31.
  12. Dimitri Vayanos, 1998. "Transaction costs and asset prices : a dynamic equilibrium model," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 451, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  13. Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis M., 2002. "Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long-Term Investors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296942, September.
  14. Bong-Gyu Jang & Hyeng Keun Koo & Hong Liu & Mark Loewenstein, 2007. "Liquidity Premia and Transaction Costs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2329-2366, October.
  15. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 2004. "Recursive Macroeconomic Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026212274x, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Luis F. Céspedes & Javier García-Cicco & Diego Saravia, 2013. "Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: The Chilean Experience," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 712, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Richard J. Martin, 2012. "Optimal multifactor trading under proportional transaction costs," Papers 1204.6488, arXiv.org.
  3. Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Ooi, Yao Hua & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2012. "Time series momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 228-250.

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