IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hig/wpaper/75-fe-2019.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do Portfolio Investors Need To Consider The Asymmetry Of Returns On The Russian Stock Market?

Author

Listed:
  • Valeria V. Lakshina

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper uses the parsimonious method of embedding skewness in asset allocation based on the Taylor expansion of the investor utility function up to the third term and maximizing it by portfolio weights. This approach also enables us to consider investor risk aversion. Time-dependent multivariate asset moments are obtained via the GOGARCH volatility model with a normal-inverse Gaussian distribution for the error term. We explore the performance of the usual 2 moment utility and its 3 moment counterpart for a portfolio consisted of twenty assets traded on the Russian stock market. The results demonstrate that the 3 moment utility significantly outperforms the 2 moment utility by SD, MAD and CVaR for low levels of absolute risk aversion and by portfolio returns and investor utility level during the whole forecast period.

Suggested Citation

  • Valeria V. Lakshina, 2019. "Do Portfolio Investors Need To Consider The Asymmetry Of Returns On The Russian Stock Market?," HSE Working papers WP BRP 75/FE/2019, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hig:wpaper:75/fe/2019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://wp.hse.ru/data/2019/06/26/1490724468/75FE2019.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Walter Briec & Kristiaan Kerstens & Octave Jokung, 2007. "Mean-Variance-Skewness Portfolio Performance Gauging: A General Shortage Function and Dual Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(1), pages 135-149, January.
    2. Mencía, Javier & Sentana, Enrique, 2009. "Multivariate location-scale mixtures of normals and mean-variance-skewness portfolio allocation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 105-121, December.
    3. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    4. Bodnar, Taras & Parolya, Nestor & Schmid, Wolfgang, 2015. "On the exact solution of the multi-period portfolio choice problem for an exponential utility under return predictability," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 246(2), pages 528-542.
    5. Kerstens, Kristiaan & Mounir, Amine & Van de Woestyne, Ignace, 2011. "Geometric representation of the mean-variance-skewness portfolio frontier based upon the shortage function," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 81-94, April.
    6. Luis Zuluaga & Samuel Cox, 2010. "Improving Skewness of Mean-Variance Portfolios," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 59-67.
    7. Fogler, H. Russell & Groves, William A. & Richardson, James G., 1977. "Bond Portfolio Strategies, Returns, and Skewness: A Note," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 127-140, March.
    8. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    9. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    10. Akbar, Muhammad & Nguyen, Thuy Thu, 2016. "The explanatory power of higher moment capital asset pricing model in the Karachi stock exchange," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 241-253.
    11. Roy van der Weide, 2002. "GO-GARCH: a multivariate generalized orthogonal GARCH model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 549-564.
    12. Piotr Jaworski & Marcin Pitera, 2014. "On spatial contagion and multivariate GARCH models," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(3), pages 303-327, May.
    13. Li, Xiang & Qin, Zhongfeng & Kar, Samarjit, 2010. "Mean-variance-skewness model for portfolio selection with fuzzy returns," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 239-247, April.
    14. Eisdorfer, Assaf, 2010. "Risk-shifting and investment asymmetry," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 232-237, December.
    15. John R. Birge & Luis Chavez-Bedoya, 2016. "Portfolio optimization under a generalized hyperbolic skewed t distribution and exponential utility," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 1019-1036, July.
    16. Kane, Alex, 1982. "Skewness Preference and Portfolio Choice," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 15-25, March.
    17. Palczewski, Jan & Poulsen, Rolf & Schenk-Hoppé, Klaus Reiner & Wang, Huamao, 2015. "Dynamic portfolio optimization with transaction costs and state-dependent drift," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(3), pages 921-931.
    18. Campbell Harvey & John Liechty & Merrill Liechty & Peter Muller, 2010. "Portfolio selection with higher moments," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 469-485.
    19. Kim, Woo Chang & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Cheridito, Patrick & Fox, Charles, 2014. "Controlling portfolio skewness and kurtosis without directly optimizing third and fourth moments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 154-158.
    20. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 1997. "Processes of normal inverse Gaussian type," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 41-68.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lakshina, Valeriya, 2020. "Do portfolio investors need to consider the asymmetry of returns on the Russian stock market?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    2. Vincenzo Candila, 2013. "A Comparison of the Forecasting Performances of Multivariate Volatility Models," Working Papers 3_228, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Statistiche, Università degli Studi di Salerno.
    3. Laurent, Sébastien & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K. & Violante, Francesco, 2013. "On loss functions and ranking forecasting performances of multivariate volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 1-10.
    4. Kim, Donggyu & Fan, Jianqing, 2019. "Factor GARCH-Itô models for high-frequency data with application to large volatility matrix prediction," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(2), pages 395-417.
    5. Barigozzi, Matteo & Hallin, Marc, 2017. "Generalized dynamic factor models and volatilities: estimation and forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 307-321.
    6. Carroll, Rachael & Conlon, Thomas & Cotter, John & Salvador, Enrique, 2017. "Asset allocation with correlation: A composite trade-off," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(3), pages 1164-1180.
    7. Andrea Silvestrini & David Veredas, 2008. "Temporal Aggregation Of Univariate And Multivariate Time Series Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 458-497, July.
    8. Xiaoning Kang & Xinwei Deng & Kam‐Wah Tsui & Mohsen Pourahmadi, 2020. "On variable ordination of modified Cholesky decomposition for estimating time‐varying covariance matrices," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 88(3), pages 616-641, December.
    9. M. Raddant & T. Di Matteo, 2023. "A look at financial dependencies by means of econophysics and financial economics," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 18(4), pages 701-734, October.
    10. Briec, Walter & Kerstens, Kristiaan & Van de Woestyne, Ignace, 2011. "Portfolio Selection with Skewness: A Comparison and a Generalized Two Fund Separation Result," Working Papers 2011/09, Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel, Faculteit Economie en Management.
    11. Briec, Walter & Kerstens, Kristiaan & Van de Woestyne, Ignace, 2013. "Portfolio selection with skewness: A comparison of methods and a generalized one fund result," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 412-421.
    12. Ruili Sun & Tiefeng Ma & Shuangzhe Liu & Milind Sathye, 2019. "Improved Covariance Matrix Estimation for Portfolio Risk Measurement: A Review," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-34, March.
    13. Santos, André A.P. & Moura, Guilherme V., 2014. "Dynamic factor multivariate GARCH model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 606-617.
    14. João Caldeira & Guilherme Moura & André A.P. Santos, 2012. "Portfolio optimization using a parsimonious multivariate GARCH model: application to the Brazilian stock market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 1848-1857.
    15. K. Saranya & P. Prasanna, 2014. "Portfolio Selection and Optimization with Higher Moments: Evidence from the Indian Stock Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 21(2), pages 133-149, May.
    16. BAUWENS, Luc & HAFNER, Christian & LAURENT, Sébastien, 2011. "Volatility models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011058, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
      • Bauwens, L. & Hafner, C. & Laurent, S., 2012. "Volatility Models," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2012028, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
      • Bauwens, L. & Hafner C. & Laurent, S., 2011. "Volatility Models," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2011044, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    17. Jarjour, Riad & Chan, Kung-Sik, 2020. "Dynamic conditional angular correlation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(1), pages 137-150.
    18. Cheng Yu & Dong Li & Feiyu Jiang & Ke Zhu, 2023. "Matrix GARCH Model: Inference and Application," Papers 2306.05169, arXiv.org.
    19. Kwangmin Jung & Donggyu Kim & Seunghyeon Yu, 2021. "Next Generation Models for Portfolio Risk Management: An Approach Using Financial Big Data," Papers 2102.12783, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    20. Duchesne, Pierre, 2006. "Testing for multivariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity using wavelets," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 2142-2163, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    portfolio optimization; asymmetry of returns; risk aversion; GO-GARCH; normal-inverse Gaussian distribution; utility approach.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hig:wpaper:75/fe/2019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Shamil Abdulaev or Shamil Abdulaev (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hsecoru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.