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Previdência E Taxa De Juros No Brasil

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  • MAURO RODRIGUES

Abstract

O presente trabalho relaciona a alta taxa de juros real brasileira com o elevado gasto em previdência sob um regime de repartição. Para tanto, utilizamos uma versão padrão do modelo de gerações sobrepostas, com um regime de previdência misto (isto é, parte capitalização e parte repartição). O modelo é calibrado para a economia brasileira no período 2000-2014. Considera-se um estado estacionário inicial de modo a reproduzir a taxa de juros real média nesse período, sob um regime totalmente do tipo repartição. Simula-se então uma mudança para replicar os gastos em previdência do Chile, um país com um sistema majoritariamente do tipo capitalização. Em nossa especificação preferida, o modelo prevê uma queda de 1 ponto percentual na taxa de juros real (ao ano) de longo prazo. Isso corresponde a 18% do diferencial médio de juros entre Brasil e Chile no período 2000-2014.
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Suggested Citation

  • Mauro Rodrigues, 2018. "Previdência E Taxa De Juros No Brasil," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 49, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2016:49
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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