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New Method for Real Option Valuation Using Fuzzy Numbers

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  • Collan, Mikael

Abstract

Real option analysis offers interesting insights on the value of assets and on the profitability of investments, which has made real options a growing field of academic research and practical application. Real option valuation is, however, often found to be difficult to understand and to implement due to the quite complex mathematics involved. Recent advances in modeling and analysis methods have made real option valuation easier to understand and to implement. This paper presents a new method for real option valuation using fuzzy numbers that is based on findings from earlier real option valuation methods and from fuzzy real option valuation. The method is intuitive to understand and far less complicated than any previous real option valuation model to date.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by IAMSR, Åbo Akademi in its series Working Papers with number 466.

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Date of creation: Aug 2008
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Handle: RePEc:amr:wpaper:466

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Web page: http://iamsr.abo.fi/

Related research

Keywords: Real Options; Fuzzy Numbers; New Method;

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References

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  1. Pindyck, Robert, 1989. "Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 294, The World Bank.
  2. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  3. Zmeskal, Zdenek, 2001. "Application of the fuzzy-stochastic methodology to appraising the firm value as a European call option," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 303-310, December.
  4. Boyle, Phelim P., 1977. "Options: A Monte Carlo approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 323-338, May.
  5. Muzzioli, Silvia & Torricelli, Costanza, 2001. "A Model For Pricing An Option With A Fuzzy Payoff," Fuzzy Economic Review, International Association for Fuzzy-set Management and Economy (SIGEF), vol. 0(1), pages 49-87, May.
  6. Collan, Mikael, 2004. "Giga-Investments: Modelling the Valuation of Very Large Industrial Real Investments," MPRA Paper 4328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
  8. Yoshida, Yuji, 2003. "The valuation of European options in uncertain environment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 221-229, February.
  9. R. E. Bellman & L. A. Zadeh, 1970. "Decision-Making in a Fuzzy Environment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(4), pages B141-B164, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Kraemer, Christian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2009. "Using Fuzzy Real Options Valuation for Assessing Investments in NGCC and CCS Energy Conversion Technology," FCN Working Papers 3/2009, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).

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