IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ajk/ajkdps/013.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Paying Them to Hate US: The Effect of U.S. Military Aid on Anti-American Terrorism, 1968-2014

Author

Listed:
  • Eugen Dimant

    (University of Pennsylvania, Center for Social Norms and Behavioral Dynamics & CESifo, Munich, Germany)

  • Tim Krieger

    (University of Freiburg, Department of Economics)

  • Daniel Meierrieks

    (WZB Berlin Social Science Center,)

Abstract

Does U.S. military aid make the United States safer? To answer this question, we collect data on 173 countries between 1968 and 2014. Exploiting quasi-random variation in the global patterns of U.S. military aid, our paper is the first to provide causal estimates of the effect of U.S. military aid on anti-American terrorism. We find that higher levels of military aid led to an increased likelihood of the recipient country to produce anti-American terrorism. For our preferred instrumental-variable specification, doubling U.S. military aid increases the risk of anti-American terrorism by 4.4 percentage points. Examining potential transmission channels, we find that more U.S. military aid leads to more corruption and exclusionary policies in recipient countries. Consistent with a theoretical argument developed in this paper, these results indicate that the inflow of military aid induces rent-seeking behavior, which in turn encourages terrorism by groups that suffer from reduced economic and political participation as a consequence of rent-seeking. These groups direct their dissatisfaction against the United States as the perceived linchpin of an unfavorable status quo in the recipient country.

Suggested Citation

  • Eugen Dimant & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2020. "Paying Them to Hate US: The Effect of U.S. Military Aid on Anti-American Terrorism, 1968-2014," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 013, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkdps/ECONtribute_013_2020.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2020
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Axel Dreher & Peter Nunnenkamp & Rainer Thiele, 2008. "Does US aid buy UN general assembly votes? A disaggregated analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 139-164, July.
    2. Eckstein, Zvi & Tsiddon, Daniel, 2004. "Macroeconomic consequences of terror: theory and the case of Israel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 971-1002, July.
    3. Gould, Eric D. & Stecklov, Guy, 2009. "Terror and the costs of crime," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(11-12), pages 1175-1188, December.
    4. Michael Jetter & David Stadelmann, 2019. "Terror per Capita," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(1), pages 286-304, July.
    5. Christian Bjørnskov & Martin Rode, 2020. "Regime types and regime change: A new dataset on democracy, coups, and political institutions," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 531-551, April.
    6. Landes, William M, 1978. "An Economic Study of U.S. Aircraft Hijacking, 1961-1976," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-31, April.
    7. Jetter, Michael, 2017. "The effect of media attention on terrorism," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 32-48.
    8. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    9. S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess & Akila Weerapana, 2004. "An Economic Model of Terrorism," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 21(1), pages 17-28, February.
    10. Nathan Nunn & Nancy Qian, 2014. "US Food Aid and Civil Conflict," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1630-1666, June.
    11. Eugen Dimant & Guglielmo Tosato, 2018. "Causes And Effects Of Corruption: What Has Past Decade'S Empirical Research Taught Us? A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 335-356, April.
    12. Svensson, Jakob, 2000. "Foreign aid and rent-seeking," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 437-461, August.
    13. Dreher, Axel & Fuchs, Andreas & Langlotz, Sarah, 2019. "The effects of foreign aid on refugee flows," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 127-147.
    14. Vasilis Sarafidis & Tom Wansbeek, 2012. "Cross-Sectional Dependence in Panel Data Analysis," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 483-531, September.
    15. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    16. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    17. Thomas Gries & Daniel Meierrieks & Margarete Redlin, 2015. "Oppressive governments, dependence on the USA, and anti-American terrorism," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 83-103.
    18. Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2015. "The rise of capitalism and the roots of anti-American terrorism," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 52(1), pages 46-61, January.
    19. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    20. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2015. "The Economics Of Counterterrorism: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 131-157, February.
    21. Peter Kurrild-Klitgaard & Mogens Justesen & Robert Klemmensen, 2006. "The political economy of freedom, democracy and transnational terrorism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 289-315, July.
    22. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    23. Sandler, Todd & Tschirhart, John T. & Cauley, Jon, 1983. "A Theoretical Analysis of Transnational Terrorism," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 36-54, March.
    24. Khilji, Nasir M. & Zampelli, Ernest M., 1994. "The fungibility of U.S. military and non-military assistance and the impacts on expenditures of major aid recipients," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 345-362, April.
    25. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-529, October.
    26. Chong, Alberto & Gradstein, Mark, 2008. "What determines foreign aid? The donors' perspective," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 1-13, August.
    27. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2019. "What We Have Learned about Terrorism since 9/11," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 57(2), pages 275-328, June.
    28. de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno & Smith, Alastair, 2009. "A Political Economy of Aid," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(2), pages 309-340, April.
    29. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 1993. "The Effectiveness of Antiterrorism Policies: A Vector-Autoregression-Intervention Analysis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(4), pages 829-844, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dimant, Eugen & Krieger, Tim & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2023. "Paying them to hate US: The effect of U.S. military aid on anti-American terrorism, 1968-2018," Discussion Paper Series 2023-02, University of Freiburg, Wilfried Guth Endowed Chair for Constitutional Political Economy and Competition Policy.
    2. Auer, Daniel & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2021. "Merchants of death: Arms imports and terrorism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Meierrieks, Daniel & Auer, Daniel, 2022. "Bribes and Bombs: The Effect of Corruption on Terrorism," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264084, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Meierrieks, Daniel & Schneider, Friedrich, 2021. "Terrorism and international economic policy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    5. Peppel-Srebrny, Jemima, 2021. "Not all government budget deficits are created equal: Evidence from advanced economies' sovereign bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    6. Meierrieks, Daniel & Renner, Laura, 2021. "Islamist terrorism and the role of women," Discussion Paper Series 2021-02, University of Freiburg, Wilfried Guth Endowed Chair for Constitutional Political Economy and Competition Policy.
    7. Helbling, Marc & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2022. "Terrorism and Migration: An Overview," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 60(2), pages 977-996.
    8. Chen, Hongrui, 2023. "Energy innovations, natural resource abundance, urbanization, and environmental sustainability in the post-covid era. Does environmental regulation matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    9. Lee, Gi-Eu & Rollins, Kimberly S. & Singletary, Loretta, 2018. "Farm-level Cropping Decision and Irrigation Water Use under Both Institutional and Hydrological Constraints," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274321, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Axel Dreher & Martin Gassebner & Paul Schaudt, 2020. "The effect of migration on terror: Made at home or imported from abroad?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 1703-1744, November.
    11. Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu & Sandler, Todd, 2023. "Voluntary participation in a terror group and counterterrorism policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 500-513.
    12. Mubashra, Sana & Shafi, Mariuam i, 2018. "The Impact of Counter-terrorism Effectiveness on Economic Growth of Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis," MPRA Paper 84847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Asmus, Gerda & Eichenauer, Vera & Fuchs, Andreas & Parks, Bradley, 2021. "Does India use development finance to compete with China? A subnational analysis," Kiel Working Papers 2189, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Meierrieks, Daniel, 2021. "Weather shocks, climate change and human health," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    15. Eugen Dimant & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2022. "The Risks of Nation-Building through Military Aid and Intervention," CESifo Working Paper Series 9957, CESifo.
    16. Meierrieks, Daniel & Renner, Laura, 2023. "Islamist terrorism and the status of women," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    17. de Soysa, Indra & Krieger, Tim & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2022. "Oil and property rights," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    18. World Bank, 2020. "Violence without Borders," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 33330, December.
    19. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2023. "Common myths of terrorism," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 271-301, April.
    20. Héctor Bellido & Lorena Olmos & Juan A. Román-Aso, 2021. "The influence of government ideology on corruption: the impact of the Great Recession," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 677-708, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    U.S. military aid; anti-American terrorism; transnational terrorism; instrumental variable estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ECONtribute Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.econtribute.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.