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Meta Response Surface Design for General and Partial Equilibrium Models

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  • Hess, Sebastian
  • von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan

Abstract

A Meta-Analysis of potential Doha Development Agenda outcomes has identified characteristics of models, data and policy experiments that influence simulated welfare changes across a wide range of modelling frameworks. This analysis by Hess and von Cramon-Taubadel (2008) was based on 5800 observations from 110 studies. Meta-regressions produce plausible results and explain a significant proportion of the variation within the dependent variable. However, due to the complexity of the general and partial equilibrium models within the literature sample, explanatory variables in this analysis are mostly binary and do not allow for detailed assessments of the role of individual parameters across different models. Therefore, the partial equilibrium model “GSIM” and a single country CGE for Canada are employed in order to generate metadata out of synthetic scenarios. These scenarios are based on randomly specified combinations of base data, elasticities and tariff changes that a software routine has selected from previously specified, plausible ranges that were obtained from the literature sample of Doha assessments. The meta-regression based on these synthetic meta-data thus combines two different trade models into one econometric response surface meta-model. Further development of this approach may potentially enable simultaneous sensitivity assessments of scenarios from both models as well as predictions of model outcomes from alternative base data and parameter specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Hess, Sebastian & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2008. "Meta Response Surface Design for General and Partial Equilibrium Models," Conference papers 331749, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331749
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arndt, Channing, 1996. "An Introduction To Systematic Sensitivity Analysis Via Gaussian Quadrature," Technical Papers 28709, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Borders, Trade and Welfare," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 508, Boston College Department of Economics.
    3. Julian M. Alston & Colin A. Carter & Richard Green & Daniel Pick, 1990. "Whither Armington Trade Models?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(2), pages 455-467.
    4. Mohamed Hedi Bchir & Sébastien Jean & David Laborde, 2006. "Binding Overhang and Tariff-Cutting Formulas," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(2), pages 207-232, July.
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