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Agricultural Trade Policy Modelling: Insights from a Meta-Analysis of Doha Development Agenda Outcomes

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  • Hess, Sebastian
  • von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan

Abstract

In a meta-analysis of trade policy models, Hess and von Cramon-Taubadel (2008) use over 5800 simulated welfare effects from 110 studies of potential Doha Development Agenda outcomes to identify characteristics of models, data and policy experiments that influence simulation results. This meta-analysis, which is recapitulated here, produces plausible results and explains a significant proportion of the variation in simulated welfare effects. However, due to insufficient documentation and the complexity of the general and partial equilibrium models in the literature sample, many explanatory variables employed in this analysis are binary. This precludes more detailed analysis of their impacts across models. Therefore, a partial equilibrium model and a single country CGE for Canada are employed to generate synthetic meta-data. Simulation scenarios are based on random combinations of base data, elasticities and tariff changes selected from plausible ranges obtained from the literature sample. The synthetic meta-data has the advantage that the values of explanatory variables are measured exactly. This makes it possible to explore more complex issues of functional form and interaction between variables in the meta-analysis. The results indicate for both models that first- and second-order polynomials provide sufficient approximations of the model response. Especially in the CGE model, interaction terms between elasticities and policy variables are important. We conclude that meta-analysis can provide insights into the behaviour of trade policy models beyond what is possible with conventional sensitivity analysis and qualitative reviews.

Suggested Citation

  • Hess, Sebastian & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2008. "Agricultural Trade Policy Modelling: Insights from a Meta-Analysis of Doha Development Agenda Outcomes," Commissioned Papers 43466, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:catpcp:43466
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.43466
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Kym Anderson & Will Martin & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2006. "Doha Merchandise Trade Reform: What Is at Stake for Developing Countries?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 20(2), pages 169-195.
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    6. Sebastian Hess & Stephan Von Cramon‐Taubadel, 2007. "Meta‐analysis of general and partial equilibrium simulations of Doha Round outcomes," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 37(s1), pages 281-286, December.
    7. Hertel,Thomas W. (ed.), 1999. "Global Trade Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521643740.
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    9. Hertel, Thomas W., 1999. "Future Directions in Global Trade Analysis," GTAP Working Papers 298, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mario Holzner & Florin Peci, 2012. "Measuring the Effects of Trade Liberalization in Kosovo," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 98, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    2. Mario Holzner, 2013. "Impact of Croatian EU Accession on Regional Trade Patterns," wiiw Policy Notes 10, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    3. Vukšić, Goran & Holzner, Mario, 2016. "Trade and fiscal imbalances in Southeastern Europe: Can fiscal devaluation help?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 568-581.
    4. Mario Holzner & Valentina Ivanić, 2012. "Effects of Serbian Accession to the European Union," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(3), pages 355-367, June.
    5. Berndt, Marvin & Hess, Sebastian, 2022. "Predicting Agricultural Trade Flows under the EU-Japan Free Trade Agreement: A Comparison of CGE Simulations and Gravity Regressions," 62nd Annual Conference, Stuttgart, Germany, September 7-9, 2022 329591, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).

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    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; International Development; International Relations/Trade;
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