Impact of Croatian EU Accession on Regional Trade Patterns
AbstractSummary This report aims to analyse the regional trade effects of Croatia’s accession to the EU and simultaneous exit from the CEFTA agreement on 1st July 2013. The Global Simulation Model (GSIM) as proposed by Francois and Hall (2003) is being applied. As the change in Croatian tariff protection is rather small, price and output changes for most CEFTA countries are expected to be mostly negligible. Only for Croatia the simulation suggests that overall consumer prices might fall by as much as 0.39% and real output by 0.41%, in the short run. However, it can be expected that EU support funds will offset that loss many times over. The share of Croatian exports to the EU is expected to increase by 2.2 percentage points, while the share of exports to the CEFTA countries and to the rest of the world is expected to drop by 0.7 and 1.5 percentage points, respectively.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw in its series wiiw Policy Notes with number 10.
Length: 15 pages including 3 Tables and 4 Figures
Date of creation: Jun 2013
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published as wiiw Policy Note
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- P33 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Business, and Aid
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-08-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2013-08-23 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-INT-2013-08-23 (International Trade)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Farhi, Emmanuel & Gopinath, Gita & Itskhoki, Oleg, 2011.
CEPR Discussion Papers
8721, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Oleg Itskhoki & Gita Gopinath & Emmanuel Farhi, 2011. "Fiscal Devaluations," 2011 Meeting Papers 406, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Emmanuel Farhi & Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki, 2011. "Fiscal Devaluations," NBER Working Papers 17662, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Emmanuel Farhi & Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki, 2012. "Fiscal devaluations," Working Papers 12-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Bouët, Antoine & Berisha-Krasniqi, Valdete & Estrades, Carmen & Laborde, David, 2012. "Trade and investment in Latin America and Asia: Perspectives from further integration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 193-210.
- Kitwiwattanachai, Anyarath & Nelson, Doug & Reed, Geoffrey, 2010. "Quantitative impacts of alternative East Asia Free Trade Areas: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) assessment," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 286-301, March.
- Mutambatsere, Emelly, 2006. "Trade Policy Reforms in the Cereals Sector of the SADC Region: Implications on Food Security," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25380, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Buffie, Edward F. & Atolia, Manoj, 2012. "Trade, growth, and poverty in Zambia: Insights from a dynamic GE model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 211-229.
- Masahisa Fujita & Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262561476, June.
- Mutambatsere, Emelly, 2006. "Trade Policy Reforms in the Cereals Sector of the SADC Region: Implications on Food Security," Working Papers 127055, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
- Valerija Botric, 2012. "Intra-industry Trade between the European Union and Western Balkans: A Close-up," Working Papers 1202, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb.
- Hess, Sebastian & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2008. "Agricultural Trade Policy Modelling: Insights from a Meta-Analysis of Doha Development Agenda Outcomes," Commissioned Papers 43466, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Customer service).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.