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An Econometric Model of CGE Simulations

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Author Info
Hess, Sebastian
Abstract

CGE models are widely used tools for economic assessments of trade policy changes. However, overall confidence in their results tends to be low. We employ the methodological framework of meta-analysis in order to approach a quantitative comparison of CGE-based simulation results. Therefore, we compile a dataset of twelve recent Doha simulations and fit a linear regression model that explains the variance between simulation results on the regional level as a function of various modeling characteristics. The estimates are broadly in range with documented qualitative knowledge about modeling assumptions. The size of the sample limits general conclusions; however, an ongoing research project will extend the approach to a larger sample.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark with number 24713.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae05:24713

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Related research
Keywords: CGE; systematic review; Doha round; evaluation; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C20; C68; D58; F10; C99;

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    Other versions:
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  8. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M Stern, 2001. "CGE Modeling and Analysis of Multilateral and Regional Negotiating Options," Working Papers 468, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Dawkins, C., 1997. "Extended Sensitivity Analysis for Applied General Equilibrium Models," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 491, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
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  14. Anderson, Kym & Hoekman, Bernard & Strutt, Anna, 2001. "Agriculture and the WTO: Next Steps," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(2), pages 192-214, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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