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Agriculture and Non-Agricultural Liberalization in the Millennium Round

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  • Hertel, Thomas W.
  • Kym Anderson
  • Joseph Francois
  • Will Martin

Abstract

Published in "Agriculture and the New Trade Agenda From a Development Perspective", edited by M. D. Ingco and L. A. Winters, Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press Much remains to be done before agricultural trade is as liberal as world trade in manufactures. But agriculture is distorted by more than agricultural policies. In developing countries especially, farming is discouraged not only by farm protection policies in high-income countries but also by those countries' own manufacturing policies and distortions to services markets. This paper explores the extent to which multilateral liberalization of not only farm but also non-farm policies would affect welfare and the markets for farm products. It projects the global economy to 2005, when the Uruguay Round (UR) implementation will be complete, and assesses the potential impact of further cuts from that post-UR base. This is done using a modified version of the GTAP Model of global trade, assuming 40% cuts in protection in agriculture, mining and manufacturing, and services. Results suggest agricultural and industrial liberalizations could yield similar-sized benefits for the global economy in 2005. However, the distributions of gains from those cuts are quite different as between rich and poor countries. We also examine the interaction between non-agricultural reforms and agricultural trade balances. For some regions, most notably for China, non-agricultural reforms dominate and reverse the sign of the change in the food trade balance following liberalization of both farm and non-farm trade. This suggests policy makers concerned with food and agriculture need to give attention also to non-agricultural policy reforms. Keywords: WTO, multilateral trade negotiations, manufacturing trade reform, agricultural distortions JEL Codes: F13, F14, F17, Q17

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University in its series GTAP Working Papers with number 235.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:gta:workpp:235

Note: GTAP Working Paper No. 08
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Cited by:
  1. Tabeau, Andrzej A. & van Berkum, Siemen, 2011. "Competing claims on land use for food and biodiversity," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland, European Association of Agricultural Economists 116072, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  2. Hess, Sebastian, 2005. "An Econometric Model of CGE Simulations," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark, European Association of Agricultural Economists 24713, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  3. Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio & Tin, Jonathan, 2002. "That was then but this is now," TMD discussion papers, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 94, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  4. Raihan, Selim & Khondker, Bazlul Haque, 2010. "Doha Round Impacts on India: A Study in a Sequential Dynamic CGE Framework," MPRA Paper 37897, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Bou�t, Antoine, 2006. "What can the poor expect from trade liberalization?: opening the "black box" of trade modeling," MTID discussion papers, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 93, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  6. Anderson, Kym, 2003. "Trade Liberalization, Agriculture, and Poverty in Low-income Countries," Working Paper Series, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  7. van Tongeren, Frank W. & Huang, Jikun, 2004. "China'S Food Economy In The Early 21st Century; Development Of China'S Food Economy And Its Impact On Global Trade And On The Eu," Report Series, Agricultural Economics Research Institute 29093, Agricultural Economics Research Institute.
  8. Howard White, 2001. "Pro-poor growth in a globalized economy," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(5), pages 549-569.
  9. Park, Innwon & Park, Soonchan & Kim, Sangkyom, 2010. "A Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP): Is It Desirable?," MPRA Paper 26680, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Lucian Cernat & Sam Laird & Alessandro Turrini, 2003. "How Important are Market Access Issues for Developing Countries in the Doha Agenda?," International Trade, EconWPA 0302004, EconWPA.
  11. Joseph E. Stiglitz & Andrew Charlton, 2005. "Un cycle de négociations commerciales pour le développement ?," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, De Boeck Université, vol. 19(4), pages 17-54.
  12. Anderson, Kym & Norman, David & Wittwer, Glyn, 2002. "Globalization of the Worlds Wine Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 3169, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Maskus, Keith E. & Wilson, John S. & Tsunehiro Otsuki, 2000. "Quantifying the impact of technical barriers to trade : a framework for analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 2512, The World Bank.
  14. Yinhua Mai, 2006. "Removing border protection on wheat and rice: effects on rural income and food securities in China," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-160, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  15. Huang, Jikun & Hu, Ruifa & van Meijl, Hans & van Tongeren, Frank W., 2003. "Economic Impacts Of Genetically Modified Crops In China," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa, International Association of Agricultural Economists 25883, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  16. Raihan, Selim & Razzaque, Mohammad A, 2007. "WTO and regional trade negotiation outcomes: quantitative assessments of potential implications on Bangladesh," MPRA Paper 38475, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Tabeau, Andrzej A. & van Meijl, Hans & Banse, Martin & Woltjer, Geert B., 2008. "Agricultural Incomes Development in EU till 2030: Scenario Analysis of Main Driving Factors," 108th Seminar, February 8-9, 2008, Warsaw, Poland, European Association of Agricultural Economists 48115, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  18. Mai, Yinhua, 2008. "Removing border protection on wheat and rice: effects on rural income and food self-sufficiency in China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(2), June.
  19. Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio & Robinson, Sherman & Thomas, Marcelle, 2002. "On boxes, contents, and users," TMD discussion papers, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 82, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  20. Diao, Xinshen & Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio & Robinson, Sherman & Orden, David, 2005. "Tell me where it hurts, an' I'll tell you who to call," MTID discussion papers, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 84, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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