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Assessing general and partial equilibrium simulations of Doha round outcomes using meta-analysis

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  • Hess, Sebastian
  • von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan

Abstract

Applied general and partial equilibrium models are widely used tools for ex ante analysis of trade policy changes. However, simulation results seem to exhibit significant variation across publications, and the often criticised ‘black box’ character of applied trade models makes meaningful comparisons of simulation results very difficult. As a potential remedy, this paper presents a meta-analysis of simulation-based Doha round publications. The meta-regression explains simulated welfare changes as a function of model characteristics, base-data and policy experiments. Regression results show that a major share of the variation within the dependent variable is explained by the covariates, and estimated coefficients show plausible signs and magnitudes. However, results also reveal that many model-based studies lack systematic documentation of their experimental settings. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Goettingen, Department of Economics in its series Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers with number 67.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cegedp:67

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Keywords: meta-analysis; partial equilibrium; general equilibrium; trade liberalisation; WTO; Doha;

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  8. Joseph Francois & Hans van Meijl & Frank van Tongeren, 2005. "Trade liberalization in the Doha Development Round," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 20(42), pages 349-391, 04.
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  10. L. Alan Winters & Neil McCulloch & Andrew McKay, 2004. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 72-115, March.
  11. Markus Knell & Helmut Stix, 2005. "The Income Elasticity of Money Demand: A Meta-Analysis of Empirical Results ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 513-533, 07.
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