IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/iaae15/211788.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Determinants of Trade Duration of Kazakhstan's Wheat Exports

Author

Listed:
  • Imamverdiyev, Nizami
  • Anders, Sven
  • Glauben, Thomas
  • Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr
  • Prehn, Soren

Abstract

The objective of this study is to analyze the trade duration patterns of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports between 1995 and 2012. Using 4-digit HS code trade flow data we employ a discrete-time duration framework and probit models controlling for unobserved heterogeneity across bilateral trade relationships. The empirical results indicate that trade cost, local production factors, price competitiveness and experience significantly explain the short duration of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports. We find that the stability and thus sustainability of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports critically depends on maintaining good trade relationships and free of export restrictions with traditional trading partners, especially post-Soviet Union economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Imamverdiyev, Nizami & Anders, Sven & Glauben, Thomas & Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr & Prehn, Soren, 2015. "Determinants of Trade Duration of Kazakhstan's Wheat Exports," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211788, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae15:211788
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.211788
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/211788/files/Imamverdiyev-Determinants%20of%20Trade%20Duration%20of%20Kazakhstan_s%20Wheat%20Exports-482.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.211788?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rudi, Jeta & Grant, Jason H. & Peterson, Everett B., 2012. "Survival of the Fittest: Explaining Export Duration and Export Failure in the U.S. Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Market," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124706, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Gafarova, Gulmira & Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr & Glauben, Thomas, 2015. "Price Discrimination And Pricing-To-Market Behavior Of Black Sea Region Wheat Exporters," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(3), pages 287-316, August.
    3. Götz, Linde & Goychuk, Kateryna & Glauben, Thomas & Meyers, William H., 2013. "Export Restrictions and Market Uncertainty: Evidence from the Analysis of Price Volatility in the Ukrainian Wheat Market," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150308, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Besedes, Tibor & Prusa, Thomas J., 2006. "Product differentiation and duration of US import trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 339-358, December.
    5. Volker Nitsch, 2009. "Die another day: duration in German import trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(1), pages 133-154, April.
    6. Dongwen Tian & Rui Li & Wei Yao & Li Huang, 2014. "Study on the survival of China agri-food export trade relationships," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 6(1), pages 139-157, January.
    7. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
    8. Wolfgang Hess & Maria Persson, 2011. "Exploring the duration of EU imports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(4), pages 665-692, November.
    9. Götz, L. & Djuric, I. & Glauben, T., 2015. "Price Damping and Price Insulating Effects of Wheat Export Restrictions in Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 50, March.
    10. Paul Brenton & Christian Saborowski & Erik von Uexkull, 2014. "What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: INTERNATIONAL TRADE, DISTRIBUTION AND DEVELOPMENT Empirical Studies of Trade Policies, chapter 17, pages 347-372, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    12. Sun, Changyou & Kim, Mina & Koo, Won W. & Cho, Guedae & Jin, Hyun Joung, 2002. "The Effect Of Exchange Rate Volatility On Wheat Trade Worldwide," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19766, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    13. Marco Fugazza & Ana Cristina Molina, 2011. "On The Determinants Of Exports Survival," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 46, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    14. Won W. Koo & David Karemera, 1991. "Determinants of World Wheat Trade Flows and Policy Analysis," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 39(3), pages 439-455, November.
    15. Renner, Swetlana & Götz, Linde & Prehn, Sören & Glauben, Thomas, 2014. "The influence of infrastructure on regional wheat trade in Russia: A gravity model approach," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182840, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Glauben, Thomas & Imamverdiyev, Nizami & Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr & Prehn, Sören, 2014. "Competitive Structure of Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine in World Wheat Market: Gravity Model Approach," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182949, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Burkitbayeva, Saule & Kerr, William A., 2013. "The Accession of Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine to the WTO: What will it Mean for the World Trade in Wheat?," Commissioned Papers 158891, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.
    18. Grant, Jason H. & Lambert, Dayton M., 2005. "Regionalism in World Agricultural Trade: Lessons from Gravity Model Estimation," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19269, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    19. Wolfgang Hess & Maria Persson, 2012. "The duration of trade revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 1083-1107, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Córcoles, David & Díaz-Mora, Carmen & Gandoy, Rosario, 2014. "Product sophistication: A tie that binds partners in international trade," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(S1), pages 33-41.
    2. David Córcoles & Carmen Díaz-Mora & Rosario Gandoy, 2015. "Export Survival in Global Production Chains," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(10), pages 1526-1554, October.
    3. Pişkin, Erhan, 2017. "Türkiye İhracatının Ölüm-Kalım Meselesi [The Matter of Survival for Turkish Exports]," MPRA Paper 81459, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Joseph Phiri & Karel Malec & Socrates Kraido Majune & Seth Nana Kwame Appiah-Kubi & Zdeňka Gebeltová & Sylvie Kobzev Kotásková & Mansoor Maitah & Kamil Maitah & Patricia Naluwooza, 2021. "Durability of Zambia’s Agricultural Exports," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, January.
    5. MAJUNE, Socrates, 2015. "A discrete time analysis of export duration in Kenya: 1995 -2014," MPRA Paper 68727, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Tomohiko Inui & Keiko Ito & Daisuke Miyakawa, 2017. "Export Experience, Product Differentiation and Firm Survival in Export Markets," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 217-231, June.
    7. Joakim Gullstrand & Maria Persson, 2015. "How to combine high sunk costs of exporting and low export survival," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 151(1), pages 23-51, February.
    8. Sun, Changyou & Zhang, Xufang, 2018. "Duration of U.S. forest products trade," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 57-68.
    9. Strauss-Kahn, Vanessa & Carrère, Céline, 2014. "Developing Countries Exports Survival in the OECD: Does Experience Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10059, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Tibor Besedeš, 2013. "The Role of NAFTA and Returns to Scale in Export Duration," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 59(2), pages 306-336, June.
    11. Iwona Markowicz & Paweł Baran, 2022. "Duration of Trade Relationships of Polish Enterprises on the Intra-Community Market: The Case of Vehicles and Automotive Parts Trade," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-17, March.
    12. David Córcoles & Carmen Díaz-Mora & Rosario Gandoy, 2013. "Product sophistication: A tie that binds partners in international production sharing," Working Papers 13-03, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    13. Dreyer, Heiko & Anders, Sven M., 2014. "Experience matters - trade duration and survival of coffee exports," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182758, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Fertö, I., 2017. "Economic Crisis And the Fragility of World Wine Export," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 9(4).
    15. Arjan Lejour, 2015. "The Duration of Dutch Export Relations: Decomposing Firm, Country and Product Characteristics," De Economist, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 155-176, June.
    16. Majune Kraido Socrates & Eliud Moyi & Kamau Gathiaka, 2020. "Explaining Export Duration in Kenya," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(2), pages 204-224, June.
    17. Zhaohua Zhang & Roshini Brizmohun & Gang Li & Ping Wang, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty undermine stability of agricultural imports? Evidence from China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(3), pages 1-17, March.
    18. Yangyuyu Luo & Sayeeda Bano, 2020. "Modelling New Zealand dairy products: evidence on export survival and duration," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), pages 605-631, July.
    19. Céline Carrère & Vanessa Strauss-Kahn, 2017. "Export survival and the dynamics of experience," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(2), pages 271-300, May.
    20. Konstantīns Beņkovskis & Peter Jarrett & Ze’ev Krill & Oļegs Tkačevs & Naomitsu Yashiro, 2024. "Aim high, shoot low? Product complexity and export survival in Latvia," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 185-207, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crop Production/Industries;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iaae15:211788. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.