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Survival of the Fittest: Explaining Export Duration and Export Failure in the U.S. Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Market

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  • Rudi, Jeta
  • Grant, Jason H.
  • Peterson, Everett B.

Abstract

This study investigates the factors that impact the duration of trade relationships in U.S. fresh fruit and vegetable imports. We employ both the survival analysis (KM estimates and Cox PH model) as well as a count data model. The preliminary results indicate that SPS treatment requirements positively impact duration while new market access issued during the study period negatively impacts duration. Developed countries and countries located in North America experience longer duration. Other factors typically included in trade duration models were also investigated. Additionally, we employ a Heckman two-step procedure to understand the impact of duration on the probability of trading and trade volume, and find that both are positively impacted therefore suggesting that more stable trade relationships also tend to involve a higher volume of trade.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124706
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington with number 124706.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea12:124706

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Keywords: Fresh fruits and vegetable; U.S. imports; Survival Analysis; Count Data; Heckman Two-Step Model; International Relations/Trade; Productivity Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty;

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  1. Tibor BesedeŇ°, 2013. "The Role of NAFTA and Returns to Scale in Export Duration," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 59(2), pages 306-336, June.
  2. Volker Nitsch, 2007. "Die Another Day: Duration in German Import Trade," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_037, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  3. Aksoy, M. Ataman & Beghin, John C., 2005. "Global Agricultural Trade and Developing Countries," Staff General Research Papers 12228, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  4. Paul Brenton & Christian Saborowski & Erik von Uexkull, 2010. "What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 24(3), pages 474-499, December.
  5. Wolfgang Hess & Maria Persson, 2012. "The duration of trade revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 1083-1107, December.
  6. Cadot, Olivier & Iacovone, Leonardo & Pierola, Martha Denisse & Rauch, Ferdinand, 2013. "Success and failure of African exporters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 284-296.
  7. Wolfgang Hess & Maria Persson, 2011. "Exploring the duration of EU imports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 147(4), pages 665-692, November.
  8. Ayako Obashi, 2008. "Stability of Production Networks in East Asia: Duration and Survival of Trade," Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series 2008-002, Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program.
  9. Tibor Besedes & Thomas J. Prusa, 2007. "The Role of Extensive and Intensive Margins and Export Growth," NBER Working Papers 13628, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Besedes, Tibor & Prusa, Thomas J., 2006. "Product differentiation and duration of US import trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 339-358, December.
  11. Mario Cleves & William W. Gould & Roberto G. Gutierrez & Yulia Marchenko, 2010. "An Introduction to Survival Analysis Using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, edition 3, number saus3, March.
  12. Patrick Royston & Paul C. Lambert, 2011. "Flexible Parametric Survival Analysis Using Stata: Beyond the Cox Model," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, number fpsaus, March.
  13. Tibor Besedes & Thomas Prusa, 2006. "Ins, outs, and the duration of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 266-295, February.
  14. Bradford F. Mills, 2000. "Are Spells of Unemployment Longer in Nonmetropolitan Areas? Nonparametric and Semiparametric Evidence," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 697-718.
  15. Richard Newfarmer & William Shaw & Peter Walkenhorst, 2009. "Breaking Into New Markets," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2616, February.
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