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Agricultural Inter-Sectoral Linkages and Its Contribution to Economic Growth in the Transition Countries

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  • Subramaniam, Vijay
  • Reed, Michael R.
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    Abstract

    This study estimates an econometric model that incorporates the linkages among agriculture, manufacturing, service and trade sectors using a vector error correction model for Poland and Romania. Three cointegrating vectors for Poland and one for Romania confirm that the different sectors in the Poland and Romania moved together over the sample period, and for this reason, their growth rates are interdependent. The long-run relationship of industrial, service and trade sectors to agricultural sector were established, and the results show that the industrial sector in Poland contributes positively to the agricultural sector while the growing service sector shows mixed results. The results of Romania indicate that the industrial sector is detrimental to agriculture however, the service sector contributes positively. The short-run results show that the service sector is the most significant sector in the Polish economy and it contributes positively to all other sectors. However, growth in the industrial sector affects the other two sectors negatively. A similar effect is observed in the Romanian economy; however, the results are not significant. As expected, the role of agriculture in the short-run is not significant to the other sectors, but it made a positive impact on the industrial sector in Romania.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China with number 51586.

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    Date of creation: 2009
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae09:51586

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    Web page: http://www.iaae-agecon.org/
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    Related research

    Keywords: Transition economy; Inter-sectoral growth linkages; Cointegration analysis; International Development; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; P20; 041; C32;

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    1. Adelman, Irma, 1984. "Beyond export-led growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 12(9), pages 937-949, September.
    2. Swinnen, Johan F.M. & Dries, Liesbeth & Macours, Karen, 2001. "Transition And Agricultural Labour," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20602, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Hwa, Erh-Cheng, 1988. "The contribution of agriculture to economic growth: Some empirical evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 16(11), pages 1329-1339, November.
    4. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-97, August.
    6. Adelman, Irma, 1984. "Beyond export-led growth," CUDARE Working Paper Series 309, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
    7. Niels‐Hugo Blunch & Dorte Verner, 2006. "Shared Sectoral Growth Versus the Dual Economy Model: Evidence from Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Zimbabwe," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 18(3), pages 283-308.
    8. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    10. Kanwar, Sunil, 2000. "Does the Dog Wag the Tail or the Tail the Dog? Cointegration of Indian Agriculture with Nonagriculture," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 533-556, September.
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