An Impact Study of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) in the Six ACP Regions
AbstractThis article intends to present a very detailed analysis of the trade-related aspects of Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) negotiations. We use a dynamic partial equilibrium model – focusing on the demand side – at the HS6 level (covering 5,113 HS6 products). Two alternative lists of sensitive products are constructed, one giving priority to the agricultural sectors, the other focusing on tariff revenue preservation. In order to be WTO compatible, EPAs must translate into 90 percent of bilateral trade fully liberalised. We use this criterion to simulate EPAs for each negotiating regional block. ACP exports to the EU are forecast to be 10 percent higher with the EPAs than under the GSP/EBA option. On average ACP countries are forecast to lose 70 percent of tariff revenues on EU imports in the long run. Yet imports from other regions of the world will continue to provide tariff revenues. Thus when tariff revenue losses are computed on total ACP imports, losses are limited to 26 percent on average in the long run and even 19 percent when the product lists are optimised. The final impact on the economy depends on the importance of tariffs in government revenue and on potential compensatory effects. However this long term and less visible effect will mainly depend on the capacity of each ACP country to reorganise its fiscal base.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium with number 44194.
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Preferential Trade Agreements; Africa; EPAs; Partial Equilibrium Simulations; International Relations/Trade;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chris Milner & Oliver Morrissey & Andrew McKay, 2005. "Some Simple Analytics of the Trade and Welfare Effects of Economic Partnership Agreements," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 14(3), pages 327-358, September.
- Lionel Fontagné & Guillaume Gaulier & Soledad Zignago, 2007.
"Specialisation across Varieties within Products and North-South Competition,"
2007-06, CEPII research center.
- Lionel Fontagné & Guillaume Gaulier & Soledad Zignago, 2008. "Specialization across varieties and North-South competition," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 23, pages 51-91, 01.
- Kee, Hiau Looi & Nicita, Alessandro & Olarreaga, Marcelo, 2004.
"Import Demand Elasticities and Trade Distortions,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4669, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bouet, Antoine & Laborde, David & Mevel, Simon, 2007. "Searching for an alternative to economic partnership agreements:," Research briefs 10, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Alexander Keck & Roberta Piermartini, 2008. "The Impact of Economic Partnership Agreements in Countries of the Southern African Development Community," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 17(1), pages 85-130, January.
- Michael Gasiorek & L. Alan Winters, 2004. "What Role for the EPAs in the Caribbean?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(9), pages 1335-1362, 09.
- Guillaume Gaulier & Soledad Zignago, 2010.
"BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version,"
2010-23, CEPII research center.
- Gaulier, Guillaume & Zignago, Soledad, 2004. "Notes on BACI (analytical database of international trade). 1989-2002 version," MPRA Paper 32401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ole Boysen & Alan Matthews, 2009. "The Economic Partnership Agreement between Uganda and the EU: Trade and Poverty Impacts," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp307, IIIS.
- Ole Boysen and Alan Matthews, 2008. "Poverty Impacts of an Economic Partnership Agreement between Uganda and the EU," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp261, IIIS.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.