The Economic Partnership Agreement between Uganda and the EU: Trade and Poverty Impacts
AbstractThis paper analyses the poverty impacts of an economic partnership agreement (EPA) between Uganda and the EU. As Ugandan exports are also eligible for duty-free access to the EU under the Everything But Arms scheme the main EPA-induced change will be the requirement to liberalise EU exporters' access to the Ugandan market. Fears have been raised that this could threaten the livelihoods of poor people through lower prices for agricultural commodities, crowding out of vulnerable industries, and loss of government revenue. In an attempt to address these concerns, we assess the impact potential of an EPA using descriptive statistics of Ugandan trade, social accounting matrix, and household budget survey data. Subsequently, we quantify the impacts on the economy and poverty, in particular, by conducting a simulation study based on a combined CGE-microsimulation model. The descriptive analysis suggests very limited scope for trade liberalisation with the EU and that the poor, in particular, have only weak links to formal markets. The results from the simulation of alternative EPA scenarios show minor but positive macroeconomic impacts indicating potentially low economic adjustment costs. Whether the very small poverty effects emerge positive or not depends on the selection of sensitive products in the EPA. Nevertheless, the very poorest appear to lose under all scenarios.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by IIIS in its series The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series with number iiisdp307.
Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2009
Date of revision:
economic partnership agreements; Uganda; poverty; CGE; microsimulation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
- D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
- F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
- F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
- I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
- O55 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2009-12-11 (Africa)
- NEP-ALL-2009-12-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2009-12-11 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-INT-2009-12-11 (International Trade)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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