Volatile world market prices for dairy products - how do they affect domestic price formation: The German cheese market
AbstractSince the stepwise reduction of intervention prices combined with watered down conditions and suspended export refunds, respectively, the EU dairy industry faces new challenges regarding wild price fluctuations originally caused in third countries. In the past, the EU domestic market was insulated as far as possible from world markets. However, today global prices could affect prices even at the level of consumers, but more directly at the level milk producers. Volatility noticeable increased with the price peak in 2007, followed by the drop in 2008, and a new price boost in 2010. Additionally, reduced security in marketing of butter and skimmed milk powder led to higher processing share of cheese which is not only exported but also increasingly consumed within the EU. Analyzing time series data of dairy products’ prices illustrates price fluctuations at different levels of the supply chain. Particularly, retail prices are less volatile than milk producer prices. Therefore, it is often assumed that retailers do not completely pass on downward movements of producer prices to consumers or, vice versa, and assumption encouraging debates on market power, margins and price transmission in the supply chain. German retailing is characterized by a high of market concentration and by a predominance of discounters, displaying a leading position in price negotiations with dairies or wholesalers. Thus, it can be argued that retailers adversely affect dairies who, in turn, affect milk producers. From this follows price transmission asymmetries differ across different levels of the supply chain, and volatile world market prices induced may affect the lower part of the supply chain negatively. However, price transmission has been analyzed in various studies before, mostly analyzing price transmissions between retailing and consumer level. Thus, they abstract from effects of intermediate levels (wholesale, world market). Therefore, the objective of this paper is to investigate the transmission of milk prices from the farm to the retail level and to detect possible asymmetries, leading in the case of world market price fluctuations to additional problems in the German supply chain. The focus is on the German cheese market whereby regime specific effects are tested e.g., the reduction of EU market support which has major impacts on price transmission. Additionally, the change in the product mix and the increased export orientation of German dairies also affect price transmission. In the analysis monthly data from January 1990 to October 2011 for producer prices of raw milk, wholesale and consumer prices for cheese as well as prices in international trade with cheese are considered. Institutional prices were generated on a monthly basis, thus, capturing dates of change in intervention prices and of export refunds. Applying a subset of model specifications based on error-correction representation asymmetries are studied, whereby the seasonal pattern of data is filtered out.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland with number 122542.
Date of creation: 23 Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Price transmission; Cointegration; Granger-causality; Dairy; Risk and Uncertainty; C1; E3; E6; F3; Q1;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
- Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2012-05-15 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2012-05-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-EUR-2012-05-15 (Microeconomic European Issues)
- NEP-MAC-2012-05-15 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Tom Doan, . "KPSS: RATS procedure to perform KPSS (Kwiatowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin) stationarity test," Statistical Software Components RTS00100, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Geweke, John & Meese, Richard & Dent, Warren, 1983. "Comparing alternative tests of causality in temporal systems : Analytic results and experimental evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 161-194, February.
- David A. Pierce & Larry D. Haugh, 1977. "Causality in temporal systems: characterizations and a survey," Special Studies Papers 87, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.