A multi-period positive mathematical programming approach for assessing economic impact of drought in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia
AbstractIn the last decade, the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), Australia faced a severe drought which affected its agriculture production. Sustainable diversion limits as proposed in the Australian Government’s basin plan together with climate change is expected to impact on future agriculture production and development in the MDB. We developed a biophysical-economic mathematical model calibrated against the observed multi-period land use data utilising the positive mathematical programming (PMP) approach to evaluate the impacts on agricultural production activities of a range of climate events and policy options. This is an extension of our previous work where the model was calibrated against a single year and focus was on the southern MDB only. The multi-period calibrated model has strong predictive capacity as it matches simulated irrigated area, water use and gross value of irrigated agricultural product (GVIAP) well with the observed irrigated land, water use and GVIAP for all the crops in all the regions of the MDB across the highly variable climatic conditions from 2005 to 2009. The approach will be useful in assessing economic impacts of climate change on irrigation, farmers’ adaptation options and/or water policies including water markets and irrigation efficiency improvement.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its series 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Freemantle, Australia with number 124418.
Date of creation: Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: AARES Central Office Manager, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU, Canberra ACT 0200
Phone: 0409 032 338
Web page: http://www.aares.info/
More information through EDIRC
Integrated hydrology and economic model; multi-period calibration; climate change; drought; agriculture; positive mathematical programming; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pierre Mérel & Santiago Bucaram, 2010. "Exact calibration of programming models of agricultural supply against exogenous supply elasticities," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 37(3), pages 395-418, September.
- Kirby, Mac & Connor, Jeffery D. & Bark, Rosalind H. & Qureshi, Muhammad Ejaz & Keyworth, Scott W., 2012. "The economic impact of water reductions during the Millennium Drought in the Murray-Darling Basin," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Freemantle, Australia 124490, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
- Ronald C. Griffin, 2006. "Water Resource Economics: The Analysis of Scarcity, Policies, and Projects," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026207267x, January.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.