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Modelling the World Wine Market to 2005: Impacts of Structural and Policy Changes

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  • Wittwer, Glyn
  • Berger, Nicholas
  • Anderson, Kym

Abstract

This paper addresses the question: What will the global wine market look like by 2005, when premium wine from Australian and other New World plantings will be ready to market? It does so using a newly developed World Multisectoral Wine Model which distinguishes premium from non-premium grapes and wine. After describing the model, we present results of projecting it from 1999 to 2005 to estimate the impact of known winegrape plantings of the late 1990s on producer and consumer prices in different regions, without and then with additional effective market promotion by Australia. Using the latter 2005 scenario as the base, we then examine in turn the effects on the global market of a strengthening of the US dollar, of a spread of Pierce’s Disease in California, of a European trade policy response to the growth in premium wine exports from the New World, and of a reduction in wholesale and retail margins on beverage wines (thanks to expanding supermarket and internet sales). Production, trade and welfare results are provided for ten regions spanning the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Wittwer, Glyn & Berger, Nicholas & Anderson, Kym, 2001. "Modelling the World Wine Market to 2005: Impacts of Structural and Policy Changes," 2001 Conference (45th), January 23-25, 2001, Adelaide, Australia 171982, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aare01:171982
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.171982
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arndt, Channing, 1996. "An Introduction To Systematic Sensitivity Analysis Via Gaussian Quadrature," Technical Papers 28709, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Harrison, W Jill & Pearson, K R, 1996. "Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 83-127, May.
    3. Berger, Nicholas & Anderson, Kym, 1999. "Consumer And Import Taxes In The World Wine Market: Australia In International Perspective," 1999 Conference (43th), January 20-22, 1999, Christchurch, New Zealand 123770, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    4. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 1999. "Impact Of East Asia’s Growth Interruption and Policy Responses: The Case Of Indonesia," 1999 Conference (43th), January 20-22, 1999, Christchurch, New Zealand 125027, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    5. Mark Horridge, 2000. "ORANI-G: A General Equilibrium Model of the Australian Economy," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers op-93, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anderson, Kym, 2001. "Where In The World Is The Wine Industry Going?," 2001 Conference (45th), January 23-25, 2001, Adelaide, Australia 125531, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    2. Goodhue, Rachael E. & LaFrance, Jeffrey T. & Simon, Leo K., 2004. "We Should Drink No Wine Before Its Time," CUDARE Working Papers 25021, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    3. R. Carew & W. J. Florkowski & S. He, 2004. "Demand for Domestic and Imported Table Wine in British Columbia: A Source-differentiated Almost Ideal Demand System Approach," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 52(2), pages 183-199, July.

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